大越期货沥青期货早报-20250715

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Supply: In June 2025, the planned domestic asphalt production was 2.398 million tons, a 3.5% month-on-month increase and a 12.7% year-on-year increase. The sample capacity utilization rate was 33.9166%, up 0.779 percentage points week-on-week. Sample enterprise shipments were 261,200 tons, a 10.91% increase, and production was 566,000 tons, a 2.35% increase. The estimated device maintenance volume was 582,000 tons, a 2.51% decrease. Refineries increased production recently, raising supply pressure [7]. - Demand: The current demand is below the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 32.7%, up 0.03 percentage points week - on - week; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, flat week - on - week; the modified asphalt开工率 was 14.383%, up 0.34 percentage points week - on - week; the road modified asphalt开工率 was 25%, down 1.00 percentage points week - on - week; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 30%, down 3.00 percentage points week - on - week [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 460.93 yuan/ton, a 11.00% decrease week - on - week. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit was 838.2543 yuan/ton, a 24.69% decrease week - on - week. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil strengthened, and it is expected to support asphalt prices in the short term [8]. - Expectation: Refineries' recent production increase raises supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. Inventory is continuously decreasing. Crude oil strengthening strengthens cost support in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2509 fluctuating between 3620 - 3672 [9]. - Other factors: On July 14, the Shandong spot price was 3810 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 164 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. Social inventory was 1.312 million tons, a 0.45% decrease week - on - week; factory inventory was 763,000 tons, a 2.01% increase week - on - week; port diluted asphalt inventory was 270,000 tons, a 68.75% increase week - on - week [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints - Supply: Refineries' production increase raises supply pressure, and it is expected to increase in the next week [7]. - Demand: Overall demand is less than expected and remains sluggish [9]. - Cost: Crude oil strengthening strengthens cost support in the short term [8]. - Expectation: The futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2509 fluctuating between 3620 - 3672 [9]. - Factors influencing the market: Bullish factor is that the relatively high crude oil cost provides some support; bearish factors are the lack of demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13]. - Main logic: High supply pressure and weak demand recovery [14]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Market Data: The table shows the price, inventory, and other data of different asphalt contracts and related products, including the price changes of different contracts, the week - on - week changes of various inventories, and the changes in production and shipment volume [17]. - Price and Basis: On July 14, the Shandong spot price was 3810 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 164 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [10]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 1.312 million tons, a 0.45% decrease week - on - week; factory inventory was 763,000 tons, a 2.01% increase week - on - week; port diluted asphalt inventory was 270,000 tons, a 68.75% increase week - on - week [10]. - Technical Analysis: The MA20 was downward, and the 09 contract futures price closed above the MA20. The main position was net long, with a decrease in long positions [10].