大越期货豆粕早报-20250715

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. The US soybean market is affected by factors such as weather in the US soybean - producing areas and Sino - US tariff negotiations. Domestic soybean meal is influenced by the increase in imported soybean arrivals and weak spot prices [8]. - The domestic soybean market is also in a short - term range - bound situation, affected by factors such as the increase in imported soybean arrivals, the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the good planting weather in the US suppresses the upward space. The US soybean market is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting and growth, imported soybean arrivals, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories at oil mills increased from low levels. The soybean market was affected by the decline in US soybeans and fluctuated downwards [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supported the post - festival price. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, soybean meal entered a short - term weak - fluctuating pattern [12]. - The low inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills supported short - term price expectations. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for clear information on South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills, and variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: the total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppressing the price of soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Soybean Prices: The report provides the trading average prices and trading volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from July 3 to July 14, as well as the prices of soybean futures and spot soybeans from July 4 to July 14 [15][17]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipts of soybeans (including soybean No.1 and No.2) and soybean meal from July 2 to July 14 are presented, along with their daily changes [19]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [30][31]. - Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24), the US (2024), Brazil (2024/25), and Argentina (2024/25) are detailed, including sowing progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, and harvesting rate at different times [32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from December 2024 to June 2025 are provided, including data on harvested area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing, and soybean production in Brazil and Argentina [40]. 5. Position Data - Not provided Other Related Information - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [41]. - The peak of imported soybean arrivals was postponed to June, with an overall increase [43]. - The inventories of soybeans and soybean meal at oil mills continued to rise [44]. - The unexecuted contracts at oil mills increased significantly, indicating an increase in long - term备货 demand [46]. - The soybean crushing volume at oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal production in June increased year - on - year [48]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans and the import soybean futures profit fluctuated slightly [50]. - The inventories of live pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month [52]. - The live pig price rebounded recently, while the piglet price remained weak [54]. - The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of live pigs increased slightly [56]. - The domestic live pig - farming profit rebounded from a low level [58].