大越期货玻璃早报-20250715

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The fundamentals of glass remain weak, and it is expected to mainly trade in a low - level range in the short term [2][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily View - Fundamentals: The "anti - involution" policy boosts market sentiment. Glass production profit has recovered, the cold - repair speed of the industry has slowed down, and the start - up rate and output have dropped to historical lows in the same period. Deep - processing orders are lower than in previous years, and terminal demand is weak, which is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of float glass in Hebei Shahe is 1092 yuan/ton, the closing price of FG2509 is 1102 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 10 yuan. The futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 67.102 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.87% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average, which is bearish [2][42]. - Disk: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: The glass fundamentals are still weak, and it is expected to mainly trade in a low - level range in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - Bullish Factors: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and glass production has continuously declined to a historical low. The photovoltaic glass industry is expected to implement a production - cut plan, which boosts the disk sentiment [3]. - Bearish Factors: The terminal demand in the real estate sector remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [4]. 3. Main Logic - The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level in the same period. It is the seasonal off - season for demand, and downstream enterprises purchase on demand. The inventory of glass factories has continued to accumulate. It is expected that glass will mainly trade in a low - level range [5]. 4. Glass Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Shahe Safety Large - Plate Spot Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1086 | 1092 | 6 | | Current Value | 1102 | 1092 | - 10 | | Change Rate | 1.47% | 0.00% | - 266.67% | [6] 5. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large plates in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1092 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. 6. Fundamentals - Cost Side - No specific content provided other than the topic of glass production profit. 7. Fundamentals - Production - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 224, with a start - up rate of 75.68%. The number of operating glass production lines is at a historical low in the same period [21]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 158,400 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history and has stabilized and rebounded [23]. 8. Fundamentals - Demand - In April 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6808 million tons [27]. - Other aspects such as housing sales, new construction, construction, and completion areas, and downstream factory start - up and order situations are mentioned but no detailed data is provided other than the data source. 9. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 67.102 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.87% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [2][42]. 10. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Consumption (10,000 tons) | Difference (10,000 tons) | Production Growth Rate | Consumption Growth Rate | Net Import Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 5354 | 5263 | 5229 | 34 | | | - 1.734 | | 2018 | 5162 | 5088 | 5091 | 7 | - 3.50% | - 2.64% | - 1.26% | | 2019 | 5052 | 5027 | 5061 | - 34 | - 2.13% | - 0.59% | - 0.50% | | 2020 | 5000 | 5014 | 5064 | - 50 | - 1.03% | 0.06% | 0.284 | | 2021 | 5494 | 5507 | 5412 | 95 | 9.88% | 6.87% | 0.24 | | 2022 | 5463 | 5418 | 5327 | 91 | - 0.56% | - 1.54% | - 0.834 | | 2023 | 5301 | 5252 | 5372 | - 120 | - 2.97% | 0.84% | - 0.934 | | 2024E | 5510 | 5461 | 5310 | 151 | 3.94% | - 1.15% | - 0.90% | [43]