大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250715

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views PTA - In the short - term, PTA drivers are expected to be weak, and prices will follow cost fluctuations. In July, there are few PTA device overhauls, and the Sanfangxiang device is planned to be put into production. Meanwhile, it's the off - season for terminal demand, polyester sales are continuously weak, inventory pressure is accumulating, and there are also news of production cuts. Attention should be paid to the progress of new PTA device production and the fluctuation of downstream polyester load [5]. - Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, and the spot basis stabilized. The factory inventory decreased slightly, but the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short with short positions decreasing [6]. MEG - In the short - term, the price of ethylene glycol will mainly undergo wide - range adjustments. The poor restart of some devices in Saudi Arabia has boosted market sentiment. In the long - term, the transferable spot in the ethylene glycol market will continue to be loose, with about 4 ships of South China goods shipped to East China this month. The inventory accumulation expectation for August - September is relatively clear, with an overall range of about 18 - 200,000 tons. As the inventory pressure of polyester products increases, the intention of subsequent factories to participate in raw material procurement will also weaken [7]. - On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol moderately strengthened, and the market trading was average. Affected by the poor restart of Saudi devices, the market quickly pulled up in the afternoon. The basis ran relatively stably, and the center of the outer market of ethylene glycol rose firmly [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - PTA: Futures fluctuated and closed higher, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, and the spot basis stabilized. The price negotiation range of this week's goods was around 4705 - 4765, and the mainstream spot basis today is 09 + 8 [6]. - MEG: The price center moderately strengthened. In the morning, it weakened slightly, and the low - level spot was traded at around 4370 yuan/ton. Then, affected by the poor restart of Saudi devices, the market quickly pulled up. In the afternoon, it was sorted at a high level, and the basis ran relatively stably [7]. 2. Daily Tips PTA - Fundamental aspects: The market is neutral, with a neutral basis, slightly positive inventory, slightly negative on the disk, and the main position is net short with short positions decreasing [6]. - Expectation: Weak drivers in the short - term, prices follow cost fluctuations [5]. MEG - Fundamental aspects: The market is neutral, with a slightly positive basis, slightly positive inventory, slightly negative on the disk, and the main position is net short with short positions decreasing [7][8]. - Expectation: Short - term wide - range adjustments, long - term inventory accumulation [7]. 3. Today's Focus There is no information provided regarding today's focus. 4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 - 2025, PTA production capacity has increased, and production, supply, and demand have all shown certain fluctuations. For example, in July 2025, the production capacity was 91.72 million tons, the production was 6.39 million tons, and the total demand was 6.27 million tons, with a supply - demand gap of 115,000 tons [12]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 - 2025, the overall operating rate and production of ethylene glycol have changed, and supply and demand have also fluctuated. For example, in July 2025, the total supply was 2.35 million tons, and the total consumption was 2.33 million tons, with a supply - demand gap of 20,000 tons [13].