Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand improvement is limited, and inventory is at a high level in the same period. The industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1241 yuan/ton, up 1.97% from the previous value. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1200 yuan/ton, with no change. The main basis was - 41 yuan/ton, up 141.18% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1200 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process was - 134.30 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production method was - 113.50 yuan/ton, at the lowest level in the same period in history [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 81.32%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally. The weekly output of soda ash was 70.89 tons, of which heavy soda ash was 40.01 tons, at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there was a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. The total planned new capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025, with an actual planned production of 100 tons in 2025 [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 92.40% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.84 tons, and the operating rate was 75.68%, showing a stable recovery. The price of photovoltaic glass continued to fall. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the industry cut production, and the daily melting volume in production decreased significantly [28][31]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 186.34 tons, an increase of 2.98% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E showed the trends of effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, apparent supply, total demand, and supply - demand differences in the soda ash industry, as well as the growth rates of capacity, production, apparent supply, and total demand [35]. Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: The rebound of the downstream glass market boosted the sentiment of the soda ash market [3]. - Negative Factors: The supply of soda ash was at a high level, terminal demand improvement was limited, and inventory was at a high level in the same period. The industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern had not been effectively improved [4].
大越期货纯碱早报-20250715
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-15 02:47