大越期货尿素早报-20250715

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China, with the export policy not being more relaxed than expected. The international urea price is strong, and the domestic urea futures market is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - The main factors affecting the urea market are the international supply and domestic demand. The main risk is the change in export policy [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures market has been fluctuating recently. The international situation has led to a supply shortage, and the Indian tender price is expected to rise further, making the international urea price strong. In China, the operating rate has decreased but remains high, and the overall inventory is still high. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand have been declining, and the agricultural demand is expected to weaken again. The overall supply of urea in China exceeds demand significantly, and the export policy has not been more relaxed than expected. The spot price of the delivery product is 1830 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 66, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.6%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.24 million tons (+55,000), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Futures Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the UR main contract is decreasing, but still indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Expectation: The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate today, with a strong international price and a significant domestic supply - demand imbalance [4]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | The spot price of the delivery product is 1830 (-10), the Shandong spot price is 1830 (-20), the Henan spot price is 1830 (0), and the FOB China price is 2581 [6]. | | Futures Market | The price of the 09 contract is 1764 (-9), the basis is 66 (-1), the price of UR01 is 1731 (-3), and the price of UR05 is 1738 (0) [6]. | | Inventory | The warehouse receipt is 2630 (-15), the comprehensive UR inventory is 1.24 million tons (+55,000), the UR factory inventory is 1.035 million tons (+55,000), and the UR port inventory is 205,000 tons (0) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10] | Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish Factors: The international urea price is strong [5]. - Bearish Factors: The daily production at the operating rate is at a high level, and the domestic demand is weak [5].