大越期货贵金属早报-20250715

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold prices fluctuated slightly after a brief rise due to Trump's sanctions on Russia not including new measures to restrict energy exports. The market is waiting for the US CPI data today, and gold prices are expected to fluctuate. The premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to 1.8 yuan/gram [4]. - Silver prices also pulled back after a brief rise. Although the overall trend remains strong, the ratio of silver to gold continues to decline. The premium of Shanghai silver has converged to around 280 yuan/kg. There is still support for silver prices [5]. - Since Trump took office, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. The verification between the new US government's policy expectations and the reality will continue, and gold prices are still likely to rise [9]. - Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase in silver prices [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The US three major stock indexes closed slightly higher, European three major stock indexes showed mixed performance, US bond yields rose across the board, the 10-year US bond yield increased by 2.40 basis points to 4.433%, the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 98.11, the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1722, and COMEX gold futures fell 0.35% to $3352.10 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, silver prices also pulled back after a brief rise. COMEX silver futures fell 1.40% to $38.41 per ounce [5]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis is -4.6, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish; the gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 4272 kilograms to 28857 kilograms, which is bearish; the 20-day moving average is downward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, which is neutral; the main net long position increased, which is bullish [4]. - Silver: The basis is -31, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral; the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 79611 kilograms to 1223982 kilograms, which is neutral; the 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, which is bullish; the main net long position decreased, which is bullish [5]. 3. Things to Watch Today - 09:30: China's National Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly report on housing sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities. - 10:00: China's Q2 GDP, January - June total retail sales of consumer goods, value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size, urban fixed - asset investment, national real - estate development investment, June urban survey unemployment rate. The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy in the first half of 2025. - Time TBD: Richmond Fed President Barkin (2027 FOMC voter) will speak. - 14:45: Boston Fed President Collins (2025 FOMC voter) will speak. - 15:00: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference for private entrepreneurs. - Time TBD: The new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. - 17:00: Eurozone's July ZEW economic sentiment index, Germany's July ZEW economic sentiment index. - Time TBD: OPEC will release its monthly crude oil market report. - 20:30: US June CPI, July New York Fed manufacturing index; Canada's June CPI. - 21:15: Fed Governor Bowman will give a welcome speech at a Fed - hosted meeting. - Time TBD: US President Trump will attend the Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit. - Time TBD: Bank of England Governor Bailey and Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves will speak at the Mansion House Dinner [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, the inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation, and the verification between the new US government's policy expectations and the reality will continue, so gold prices are still likely to rise [9]. - Silver: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase in silver prices [12]. 5. Position Data - Gold: The main net long position increased, and the long positions of the main players increased [4]. - Silver: The main net long position decreased, and the long positions of the main players decreased [5].