广发期货《黑色》日报-20250715

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views Steel - The steel market showed a relatively strong trend on Monday. The spot market was generally stable over the weekend and then followed the futures to adjust prices upwards at the end of the trading session on Monday. The current market sentiment is positive, and commodities are sensitive to supply - side news, with commodities rising in rotation. The weekly data indicates that the apparent demand is in a seasonal decline, production is following the decline in demand, and inventory remains flat. In July, the supply - demand balance is relatively stable with few contradictions. In the industrial sector, due to the improved market sentiment, traders' restocking and positive - spread trading have led to an improvement in spot demand. However, the demand is likely to decline in the second half of the year, the supply remains loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. Although the low inventory in reality and improved market sentiment support valuation - repair trading, the actual demand has limited upward potential. The next macro - observation window is the Politburo meeting at the end of July. In terms of operations, observe whether the current prices of rebar around 3100 and hot - rolled coils around 3300 can be effectively broken through. If so, pay attention to the next pressure levels of 3220 yuan (rebar) and 3350 yuan (hot - rolled coils) [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore 09 contract showed an oscillating upward trend yesterday. Fundamentally, the global iron ore shipments decreased last week, with a slight increase of 3.8% in shipments from Australia and Brazil (a 3.8% decrease in Australian shipments and a 23.9% increase in Brazilian shipments). The arrivals at 45 ports increased by 13.7% last week, and based on the shipment data, the average future arrivals are expected to rise. On the demand side, due to the increase in the impact of steel mill maintenance and the environmental - protection restrictions in Tangshan last week, the molten iron output dropped from a high level, decreasing by 1.04 to 239.81 tons per day. Currently, steel exports remain strong, and the short - term molten iron output shows resilience. Although the terminal demand faces the risk of weakening in the off - season, the rush for exports provides some support. Pay attention to the marginal changes in molten iron output. In terms of inventory, the port inventory decreased slightly last week, the port clearance volume increased slightly, and the steel mills' equity ore inventory increased slightly. Looking forward, the molten iron output in July will continue to decline, with an average expected to be around 238 tons. The steel mills' profits will continue to improve. Although the steel mill restrictions in Tangshan from July 4 - 15 reduced the demand for iron ore, the restrictions are coming to an end and production will resume. The "anti - involution" meeting brings new supply - side policy expectations. The apparent demand for the five major steel products remained high last week. In the short term, iron ore will operate in a relatively strong oscillating manner. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2509 contract on dips for unilateral trading, and conduct 9 - 1 positive - spread trading for arbitrage [4]. Coke - The coke futures showed an oscillating and relatively strong trend yesterday, and the spot market was stable with a slight upward trend. After the fourth round of price cuts on June 23, a phased bottom was formed, and market expectations began to improve. Mainstream coking enterprises plan to initiate the first round of price increases, and mainstream steel mills are expected to accept it on Friday, with an increase of 50/55 yuan per ton, which is expected to be postponed for implementation. On the supply side, as the inspection team left, some rectified coal mines started to resume production, and the coking production restrictions were lifted simultaneously. However, due to the losses of some enterprises, it is difficult to increase production. On the demand side, Tangshan carried out environmental - protection restrictions, and the operations of independent coking plants and blast furnaces decreased slightly. The molten iron output in July may remain at around 238 tons per day, continuing the downward trend. In terms of inventory, the coking plant inventory decreased rapidly, the steel mill inventory increased as they actively restocked, and the port inventory increased. The overall inventory is at a medium level. Due to the low price, the downstream steel mills' active restocking demand is conducive to the future price increase of coke. In terms of strategies, the spot market is in the stage of bottom - building and rebound. The coke futures are at a premium to the spot, providing hedging opportunities. The "anti - involution" document brings supply - side policy expectations. For spot - futures trading, it is recommended to hedge the coke 2601 contract on rallies. For speculative trading, it is recommended to go long on the coke 2509 contract on dips after a pull - back. For arbitrage, 9 - 1 positive - spread trading is recommended [6]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures showed an oscillating and relatively strong trend yesterday, and the spot prices were stable with a slight increase. In the spot market, the domestic coking coal auctions have recovered recently, with most coal mines having better trading results and an obvious increase in the number of rising coal varieties. The spot market generally shows a bottom - building and rebound trend. On the supply side, although coal mines started to resume production after the inspection team left, and the regional supply is expected to increase, due to good sales, coal mines mainly focus on price support. The overall coal mine production recovery is slow, and coal mines are still in short supply. In terms of imported coal, the Mongolian coal price rebounded slightly, the port trading improved, the inventory pressure decreased, the seaborne coal price increased, and the import profit continued to be inverted. Recently, steel mills have carried out restocking purchases. On the demand side, the coking plant operations decreased slightly, and the downstream blast furnace molten iron output decreased again. However, the downstream restocking intensity increased. During the July 4 - 15 Tangshan restrictions, the downstream demand decreased slightly, and the molten iron output in July may remain at around 238 tons per day. In terms of inventory, the coal mine inventory continued to decrease from a high level, the port inventory decreased from a high level, the port inventory increased, and the downstream inventory increased from a low level. The overall inventory is at a medium level. In terms of strategies, the spot fundamentals have improved. After the basis is repaired, spot traders have hedging needs. The spot rebound and downstream restocking still have a certain degree of sustainability. The recent inspection of General Secretary Xi Jinping in Shanxi boosts confidence. For unilateral trading, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2509 contract on dips after a pull - back. For arbitrage, 9 - 1 positive - spread trading is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: The spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3210 yuan/ton, 3190 yuan/ton, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3176 yuan/ton, 3138 yuan/ton, and 3170 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Hot - rolled coils: The spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3300 yuan/ton, 3200 yuan/ton, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3287 yuan/ton, 3276 yuan/ton, and 3288 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price was 2960 yuan/ton with no change, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton with no change. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar was 3333 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar was 3058 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton. The profits of East China rebar, North China rebar, and South China rebar were 160 yuan/ton, 130 yuan/ton, and 270 yuan/ton respectively. The profits of East China hot - rolled coils, North China hot - rolled coils, and South China hot - rolled coils were 240 yuan/ton, 150 yuan/ton, and 230 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output was 239.8 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons or 0.5%. The production of the five major steel products was 872.7 tons, a decrease of 12.4 tons or 1.4%. The rebar production was 216.7 tons, a decrease of 4.4 tons or 2.0%, including an increase of 1.1 tons or 4.2% in electric - furnace production and a decrease of 5.5 tons or 2.8% in converter production. The hot - rolled coil production was 323.1 tons, a decrease of 5.0 tons or 1.5% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products was 1339.6 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons or 0.0%. The rebar inventory was 540.4 tons, a decrease of 4.8 tons or 0.9%. The hot - rolled coil inventory was 345.6 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons or 0.2% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 10.6 tons, an increase of 0.5 tons or 5.0%. The apparent demand of the five major steel products was 873.1 tons, a decrease of 12.2 tons or 1.4%. The apparent demand of rebar was 221.5 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons or 1.5%. The apparent demand of hot - rolled coils was 322.5 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons or 0.6% [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines were 768.2 yuan/ton, 794.2 yuan/ton, 804.0 yuan/ton, and 801.5 yuan/ton respectively. The 09 - contract basis of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines decreased by 96.6%, 63.1%, 55.8%, and 57.5% respectively. The 5 - 9 spread was - 49.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0 yuan/ton or 4.3%. The 9 - 1 spread was 30.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan/ton or 9.1%. The 1 - 5 spread was 19.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton or 2.6% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrivals (weekly) were 2662.1 tons, an increase of 178.2 tons or 7.2%. The global shipments (weekly) were 2987.1 tons, a decrease of 7.8 tons or 0.3%. The national monthly import volume was 9813 tons, a decrease of 500.3 tons or 4.9% [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 239.8 tons, a decrease of 1.0 tons or 0.4%. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports (weekly) was 319.5 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons or 0.1%. The national monthly pig iron output was 7411.4 tons, an increase of 153.1 tons or 2.1%. The national monthly crude steel output was 8654.5 tons, an increase of 52.6 tons or 0.6% [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) decreased by 56.8 tons or 0.4% compared with Monday. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 8979.6 tons, an increase of 61.1 tons or 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) was 20.0 days, an increase of 1.0 day or 5.3% [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1094 yuan/ton and 1270 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of the coke 09 contract and 01 contract were 1520 yuan/ton and 1548 yuan/ton respectively, with an increase of 6 yuan/ton or 0.4% and 21 yuan/ton or 1.4% respectively. The 09 - contract basis was - 119 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract basis was - 163 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton. The J09 - J01 spread was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton. The coking profit of the Steel Union (weekly) was - 63 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton [6]. Production - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants was 64.1 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons or 0.4%. The daily average production of 247 steel mills was 47.2 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons or 0.6% [6]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 239.8 tons, a decrease of 1.0 tons or 0.4% [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory was 931.0 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons or 0.0%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 93.1 tons, a decrease of 9.0 tons or 8.84%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 637.8 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons or 0.0%. The steel mills' available days were 11.6 days, an increase of 0.1 day or 1.0%. The port inventory was 200.1 tons, an increase of 9.0 tons or 4.7% [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap was - 4.8 tons, with no change [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) and coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) were 1020 yuan/ton and 894 yuan/ton respectively, with no change in the former and an increase of 5 yuan/ton or 0.6% in the latter. The prices of the coking coal 09 contract and 01 contract were 920 yuan/ton and 1548 yuan/ton respectively, with an increase of 7 yuan/ton or 0.8% and 18 yuan/ton or 1.84% respectively. The 09 - contract basis was - 26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract basis was - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton. The JM09 - JM01 spread was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) was 290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton or 0.7% [6]. Production - The raw coal production was 868.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons or 0.34%. The clean coal production was 443.5 tons, an increase of 1.2 tons or 0.34% [6]. Demand - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants was 64.1 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons or 0.4%. The daily average production of 247 steel mills was 47.2 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons or 0.6% [6]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines was 176.4 tons, a decrease of 14.3 tons or 7.5%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 892.4 tons, an increase of 44.2 tons or 5.24%. The available days were 10.5 days, an increase of 0.6 days or 5.74%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 782.9 tons, a decrease of 6.7 tons or 0.8%. The available days were 12.5 days, with no change. The port inventory was 304.3 tons, an increase of 17.4 tons [6].