大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250715

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with cost and demand in a state of game - playing, and the market is affected by tariff policies. The expected trend for both PE and PP today is oscillatory [4][7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, back above the critical point. OPEC issued a production - increase statement on July 5, with production increasing for the fourth consecutive month. It's the off - season for agricultural films, downstream demand is weak, and there is still pressure from new capacity coming on stream. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7260 (-20), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is -24, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.3%, considered neutral [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 55.4 tons (+5.4), which is bearish [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to oscillate. OPEC's consecutive production increases, the off - season for agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and production pressure still exist. With neutral industrial inventory, PE is expected to oscillate today [4]. - Likely Factors: Cost support is a bullish factor, while new capacity launches and weak demand are bearish factors [6]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic indicators show a contraction range for PMI and an increase in OPEC production. It's the off - season for downstream demand, and the current spot price of PP delivery products is 7180 (-0). The overall fundamentals are bearish [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 113, with a premium/discount ratio of 1.6%, considered bullish [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.1), considered neutral [7]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to oscillate. OPEC's consecutive production increases, weak downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, and neutral industrial inventory suggest an oscillatory trend for PP today [7]. - Likely Factors: Cost support is a bullish factor, and weak demand is a bearish factor [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown various trends. The capacity growth rate in 2025E is expected to be 20.5% [15]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also changed. The capacity growth rate in 2025E is expected to be 11.0% [17].