大越期货甲醇早报-20250715

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the port methanol market has intertwined long and short factors and is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern. Inland methanol prices are expected to have limited adjustment space under the background of weak supply and demand. It is expected that methanol prices will mainly fluctuate this week, with MA2509 running in the range of 2350 - 2420 [4]. Summary According to the Catalog 1. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: In the port market, the tense situation in the Red Sea may provide some macro - level support. However, with the recovery of overseas plants, the fundamentals may gradually return to a supply - demand pattern of relative looseness. In the inland market, most downstream industries have poor profitability or are selling at a loss. But the raw material methanol gap of major CTO plants in the northwest has widened, and some inland supplies can flow to the ports. Also, recent concentrated shutdowns of methanol plants in the production areas provide some support to the supply side. Overall, the adjustment space of inland methanol prices is expected to be limited this week [4]. - Basis: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2410 yuan/ton, with a basis of 30 for the 09 contract, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - Inventory: As of July 10, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports was 56.76 tons, an increase of 6.79 tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol supply in the coastal areas increased by 3.65 tons to 31.29 tons [4]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the moving average [4]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [4]. - Expectation: Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2509 running in the range of 2350 - 2420 [4]. 2. Long and Short Concerns - Long Factors: Some plants have shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; the methanol operating rate in Iran has decreased; the 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production on May 16, and the 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant of Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in the second half of this month; major CTO plants in the northwest have an increased demand for raw material methanol [6]. - Short Factors: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; there are expected to be concentrated arrivals of ships at the ports in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde market has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has significantly declined; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some plants in the production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Price Data: Various prices of methanol in the spot and futures markets are provided, including the spot price in different regions (such as Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, etc.), the futures closing price, and the price changes of related products. For example, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2410 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price is 2396 yuan/ton [4][8]. - Inventory Data: As of July 10, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports was 56.76 tons, and the available and tradable supply in the coastal areas increased by 3.65 tons to 31.29 tons [4]. - Operating Rate Data: The operating rates in different regions (such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest) and the national weighted average operating rate are provided, showing a downward trend in most regions [8]. - Profit Data: The production profits of different methanol production processes (coal - based, natural - gas - based, and coke - oven - gas - based) are provided, with different profit trends for each process [21]. - Downstream Product Data: The prices, production profits, and operating rates of traditional downstream products (formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid) and MTO products are provided, showing different trends for each product [31][34][46]. 4. Maintenance Conditions - Domestic Plants: Multiple domestic methanol plants in different regions (Northwest, North China, East China, Southwest, and Northeast) are in various maintenance states, including planned and unplanned shutdowns, temporary shutdowns due to failures, and production capacity reductions [56]. - Overseas Plants: Overseas methanol plants, mainly in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Qatar, and the United States, have different operating conditions, including normal operation, restarting, and low - level operation [57]. - Olefin Plants: Olefin plants in different regions (Northwest, East China, Central China, Shandong, and Northeast) have different operating conditions, including normal operation, shutdown for maintenance, and low - load operation [58].