大越期货燃料油早报-20250715

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term fuel oil market lacks upward momentum. With the US threat of tariffs on Russia not restricting its oil exports, the fuel fundamentals easing, and the summer power generation demand not fully released, the short - term prices will fluctuate. FU2509 will operate in the 2850 - 2900 range, and LU2509 will operate in the 3620 - 3680 range [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamental analysis: The Singapore marine fuel market has sufficient low - sulfur fuel oil inventory in the short term, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market faces supply pressure from stable Middle - East shipments. The seasonal power generation demand in South Asia has not substantially supported the market. The monsoon rains have alleviated the summer heat. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - Basis: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil has a basis of 63 yuan/ton at 404.16 dollars/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a basis of 69 yuan/ton at 512.5 dollars/ton. The spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of July 9 was 20.809 billion barrels, a decrease of 520,000 barrels, which is bullish [3]. - Market: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [3]. - Main positions: High - sulfur main positions are short, with an increase in short positions; low - sulfur main positions are short, with a decrease in short positions, both are bearish [3]. - Expectation: Short - term fuel prices will fluctuate. FU2509 will operate in the 2850 - 2900 range, and LU2509 will operate in the 3620 - 3680 range [3]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: There is an expected increase in summer power generation demand [4]. - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxation of sanctions on Russia [4]. - Market driver: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Futures prices: The current FU main contract futures price is 2919, up 11 (0.38%); the LU main contract futures price is 3679, up 39 (1.07%). The basis of high - sulfur fuel oil is 63 yuan/ton, down 117 (- 64.94%); the basis of low - sulfur fuel oil is 69 yuan/ton, down 114 (- 62.42%) [5]. - Spot prices: The current price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil is 522 dollars/ton, up 12 (2.35%); the price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil is 527 dollars/ton, up 12 (2.33%); the price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 404.16 dollars/ton, down 14.55 (- 3.47%); the price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 512.5 dollars/ton, down 8 (- 1.54%); the price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil is 383.31 dollars/ton, down 14.48 (- 3.64%); the price of Singapore diesel is 650.33 dollars/ton, down 5.44 (- 0.83%) [6]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on July 9 was 2080.9 million barrels, a decrease of 520,000 barrels compared to the previous period [3]. The historical inventory data from April 23 to July 2 shows fluctuations in inventory levels [8].