大越期货原油早报-20250715

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term oil price will fall and fluctuate, with the short - term operating range of SC2508 crude oil between 515 and 525, and long - term observation is recommended. The market's reaction to Trump's threat of imposing a 100% tariff on Russia was relatively calm as the 50 - day buffer period provided sufficient negotiation time. Meanwhile, the EU's warning of counter - measures in the trade dispute has increased concerns about the demand side of crude oil [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: The EU accused the US of resisting a trade agreement, and Trump announced new weapons for Ukraine and threatened sanctions on Russia. Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for the second half of 2025 due to supply interruption risks, falling OECD oil inventories, and Russian production cuts. Overall, it is neutral [3]. - Basis: On July 14, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $72.33 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $72.01 per barrel, with a basis of 13.96 yuan per barrel, indicating that the spot price was higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - Inventory: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending July 4 increased by 7.128 million barrels (expected to decrease by 2.6 million barrels), the EIA inventory increased by 7.07 million barrels (expected to decrease by 2.071 million barrels), and the Cushing area inventory increased by 0.464 million barrels. As of July 14, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 4.517 million barrels, which is bearish [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was near the average, which is neutral [3]. - Main Position: As of July 8, the main position of WTI crude oil was long, with a decrease in long positions; the main position of Brent crude oil was long, with an increase in long positions, which is neutral [3]. 3.2 Recent News - The EU accused the US of resisting a trade agreement to avoid punitive tariffs threatened by Trump starting from August 1. Trump said he was open to further discussions, and EU officials will go to the US for negotiations. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Russia if a peace agreement is not reached within 50 days, and announced an agreement to transport weapons to Ukraine with NATO. The market reaction was calm [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: The intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - Bearish factors: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, the trade relationship between the US and other economies remains tense, and Iran and Israel have ceased fire [6]. - Market driver: Short - term geopolitical conflicts drive up the price, and mid - to long - term prices await the peak summer demand season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures market: The settlement price of Brent crude oil decreased from $68.80 to $68.30, a decrease of 0.73%; WTI crude oil decreased from $67.00 to $62.36, a decrease of 6.93%; SC crude oil increased from 503.7 to 506.4, an increase of 0.54%; Oman crude oil increased from $68.70 to $69.78, an increase of 1.57% [7]. - Spot market: The price of UK Brent Dtd decreased from $71.28 to $70.91, a decrease of 0.52%; WTI decreased from $67.00 to $66.50, a decrease of 0.75%; Oman crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased from $69.84 to $70.03, an increase of 0.27%; Shengli crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased from $66.72 to $67.07, an increase of 0.52%; Dubai crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased from $69.70 to $69.85, an increase of 0.22% [9]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI crude oil: As of July 8, the net long position decreased by 25,319 to 209,374 [16]. - Brent crude oil: As of July 8, the net long position increased by 55,630 to 222,347 [19].