Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural products morning report released on July 15, 2025, by the agricultural products team of the research center [1] Group 2: Corn/Starch Price Data - From July 8 - 14, 2025, prices in Jinzhou decreased by 10, in Weifang by 8, and the basis changed by -6. Trade profit increased by 10, and import profit increased by 8. For starch, the basis increased by 9, and processing profit increased by 20 [2] Market Analysis - Corn: Recent reserve auctions of imported corn increased supply slightly, easing market tension and causing some grain - using enterprises to lower purchase prices. In the short - term, the auctions aim to ease market tension, and low old - crop inventories support prices. In the long - term, widening import profits may lead to increased imports and weaker prices [3] - Starch: Some enterprises raised starch prices due to production losses. In the short - term, strong raw material prices support starch prices, but high industry inventories limit the rebound. In the long - term, weak downstream consumption restricts price increases, and it's advisable to short far - month contracts after a small profit repair [3] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From July 8 - 14, 2025, there was no change in spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming. The basis decreased by 7, and import profit from Thailand and Brazil increased by 77. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 134 [4] Market Analysis - International sugar prices are under pressure due to Brazil's peak crushing season. However, Brazil faces risks (low yield, sugar content, and falling sugar - making ratio), giving raw sugar potential for a corrective rebound. The domestic market follows raw sugar, but Zhengzhou sugar has a smaller fluctuation range. With a large amount of imported sugar arriving, the futures price faces upward pressure [4] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From July 8 - 14, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 5, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 61. The price of Vietnamese yarn increased by 50, and the import profit increased by 54. The 32S spinning profit increased by 45 [6] Market Analysis - A rapid decline in cotton inventories has driven up prices recently, but there is resistance from hedging orders. Weak downstream orders, profits, and machine - running rates limit the acceptance of high prices. If demand worsens or there are macro risks, prices may fall; otherwise, they will fluctuate at the current level [6] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From July 8 - 14, 2025, egg prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased by 0.22, 0.22, 0.25, 0.20, and 0.15 respectively. The basis increased by 20 [8] Market Analysis - In early July, hot and humid weather in northern production areas affected egg storage and transportation, causing the futures price to fall. As the weather clears, egg prices will enter a seasonal upward channel, but high inventory may limit the rebound [9] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From July 8 - 14, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained unchanged. The national inventory increased by 6, Shandong inventory increased by 11, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 24 [11][12] Market Analysis - In the new production season, apple bagging has ended in various regions. Western regions may see increased yield but have serious tree - felling problems, and Shandong is expected to have a 20% reduction. National production may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, with the lowest inventory in five years and slower de - stocking recently. Spot prices have risen significantly, and seasonal fruits are squeezing apples' market share [12] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - From July 8 - 14, 2025, pig prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, Shandong Linyi, Anhui Hefei, and Jiangsu Nantong decreased by 0.10, 0.15, 0.05, 0.25, and 0.20 respectively. The basis decreased by 40 [12] Market Analysis - Pig production capacity reduction is limited, and long - term supply pressure remains. In the medium - term, price rebounds are not conducive to capacity and inventory reduction. Futures prices have risen on expectations of seasonal rebounds and policies, but need spot price verification. Spot price rebounds are temporarily blocked, and the de - stocking path is crucial [12]
农产品早报-20250715
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-07-15 07:49