广发早知道：汇总版-20250715

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. It provides insights into market conditions, influencing factors, and offers corresponding investment suggestions for each sector. For example, in the financial derivatives market, it analyzes the trends of stock index futures and treasury bond futures; in the non - ferrous metals sector, it assesses the supply - demand situation and price trends of copper, aluminum, etc. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: On Monday, the A - share market showed mixed trends. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index declined. The four major stock index futures contracts all pulled back. Given the new round of US trade policy negotiation window and the index breaking through the short - term shock range, it is recommended to wait and see for now [2][3][4]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The liquidity tightened, and the central bank increased reverse - repurchase operations. The export growth showed some resilience, and the social financing data was positive. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider going long after adjustment and stabilization, and appropriately bet on a steeper yield curve [5][6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: After the market digested the impact of US tariffs, the US dollar strengthened, and gold and silver prices rose first and then fell. In the long - term, gold is bullish due to the weakening US economic outlook and de - dollarization. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level above $3300 per ounce. Silver may have further impulse - type increases, but there are also risks of increased market volatility [8][9][10]. Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe) - The SCFIS European line index rose 7.26% on July 14. The futures market was volatile. It is expected to be strongly volatile, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish on the 08 contract, paying attention to the US - EU trade negotiation situation and the August quotes [12][13]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The US copper replenishment ended, and non - US regions returned to fundamental pricing. The supply was expected to be looser, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 78000 yuan [14][15][18]. - Alumina: The spot was temporarily tightened, but the medium - term surplus pattern remained unchanged. It is expected to fluctuate widely between 2950 - 3250 yuan, and it is advisable to short at high levels in the medium - term [18][19][20]. - Aluminum: The macro uncertainty increased, and the spot market was in a slack season. It is expected to fluctuate widely between 20000 - 20800 yuan [20][21][22]. - Aluminum Alloy: The market followed the decline of aluminum prices, with weak fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate weakly between 19400 - 20200 yuan [22][23][24]. - Zinc: Concerns about tariffs resurfaced, and the demand outlook was weak. It is expected to fluctuate between 21500 - 23000 yuan [25][26][28]. - Tin: Short - term macro disturbances were significant. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels and expect wide - range fluctuations [28][29][32]. - Nickel: The market was in a narrow - range shock, and the industrial surplus still restricted prices. It is expected to adjust within the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan [32][33][34]. - Stainless Steel: The market was mainly in a shock state. It is expected to run within the range of 12500 - 13000 yuan, paying attention to policy trends and steel mill production cuts [36][37][38]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market was driven by news and rose significantly. In the short - term, it is expected to run in a relatively strong range between 63000 - 68000 yuan, and it is advisable to wait and see [39][40][42]. Black Metals - Steel: In the slack season, steel prices maintained a shock trend. It is recommended to observe whether the current levels of 3100 yuan for rebar and 3300 yuan for hot - rolled coil can be effectively broken [43][44][45]. - Iron Ore: The sentiment in the black metal market improved. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, and it is advisable to go long at low levels and conduct 9 - 1 positive spreads [46][47]. - Coking Coal: The market auction failure rate decreased, and the spot was strongly running. It is advisable to go long at low levels after a pull - back and conduct 9 - 1 positive spreads [48][49][50]. - Coke: Mainstream coking plants planned to raise prices for the first time. It is advisable to conduct hedging for the 2601 contract at high levels, go long at low levels after a pull - back for the 2509 contract, and conduct 9 - 1 positive spreads [51][52][53]. Agricultural Products - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal): US soybeans stabilized, and the rising import cost supported domestic meal prices. It is advisable to be cautiously bullish in the short - term [54][55][56]. - Pigs: The potential supply pressure accumulated, and the price increase was weak. It is advisable to go short at high levels above 14500 yuan [58][59].