芳烃橡胶早报-20250715

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - PTA: The near - end TA start - up increased slightly, polyester load declined further, inventory continued to accumulate, the basis of mainstream suppliers decreased, and spot processing fees weakened significantly. PX domestic start - up remained stable, with some overseas maintenance, PXN weakened slightly, and the disproportionation and isomerization benefits remained stable. Entering the inventory accumulation stage, the slope depends on the weakening degree of the polyester off - season. Since the spot processing fee has been compressed to an extremely low level, there may be a marginal reduction in supply. Given the relatively low absolute inventory, attention should be paid to the opportunity of increasing processing fees at low prices [2]. - MEG: The near - end domestic coal - based restart drove the start - up to increase month - on - month, Saudi Arabian devices were restarting, and port inventory would accumulate early next week. Downstream stocking levels increased, and the basis remained stable. With no reduction in Iranian and ethane supplies and the increase in domestic production start - up, it is gradually entering the inventory accumulation stage. With low actual inventory and relatively high valuation, it is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts [8]. - Polyester Staple Fiber: Near - end supply from Ningbo Dafafa decreased, and the start - up dropped to 92.3%. Production and sales remained stable month - on - month, and inventory was basically maintained. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn continued to decline, with raw material inventory decreasing and finished product inventory increasing, and benefits remained low. With acceptable benefits and inventory pressure, there is no obvious reduction or increase in supply. With weak domestic demand and high export growth, processing fees are expected to be range - bound [8]. - Natural Rubber: The national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping [8]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - Price and Spread Changes: From July 8 - 14, 2025, crude oil decreased by 1.2, PX CFR increased by 13, PTA internal - market spot increased by 13, and the PTA processing fee decreased by 81. The average daily basis of PTA spot transactions for 2509 increased by 6 [2]. - Device and Market Situation: Near - end TA start - up increased slightly, polyester load declined, inventory accumulated, and the basis decreased [2]. MEG - Price and Spread Changes: From July 8 - 14, 2025, the MEG internal - market price increased by 14, and the basis for 09 increased by 67 [8]. - Device and Market Situation: Near - end domestic coal - based restart drove the start - up to increase, Saudi Arabian devices were restarting, and port inventory would accumulate [8]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Spread Changes: From July 8 - 14, 2025, the daily change in spot price was - 15, and the market basis for 08 was around + 0 [8]. - Device and Market Situation: Near - end supply from Ningbo Dafafa decreased, and the start - up dropped to 92.3%. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn continued to decline [8]. Natural Rubber - Price and Spread Changes: From July 8 - 14, 2025, the daily change in Thai glue was - 5, and the weekly change in US - dollar Thai standard was 40 [8]. - Market Situation: The national explicit inventory remained stable, and the price of Thai cup rubber rebounded [8]. Aromatic Hydrocarbons (Benzene - related Products) - Price and Profit Changes: From July 8 - 14, 2025, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) increased by 8, and the domestic profit of styrene changed from 170 to 221 [13]. - Production and Market Situation: The start - up rates of EPS, ABS, and PS showed different trends, and the production profits of each product also fluctuated [14].