甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250715

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Methanol: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation is starting, and the futures price is undervalued. It's in a period of bearish factor realization. With macro - instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine, but due to low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [2]. - Plastic: For polyethylene, overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase. Domestic linear production increased in June. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new device commissioning in 2025 [6]. - PP: Polypropylene inventory is decreasing in both upstream and mid - stream. The basis is +100, non - standard price spread is neutral, and import profit is around - 500. Exports are good. PDH profit is around - 1000. Supply is expected to increase slightly in June, and downstream orders are average. In an over - capacity context, the 09 contract faces moderate to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated by strong exports or more PDH device maintenance [6]. - PVC: The basis is maintained at 09 - 150, and downstream construction is seasonally weak. Mid - and upstream inventory de - stocking is slowing. Attention should be paid to new production and export sustainability from July to August. Static inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly, and cost is stable. Focus on exports, coal prices, housing sales, terminal orders, and construction [10]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - Price Data: From July 8 to July 14, the daily change of动力煤期货is 0,江苏现货increased by 12,华南现货increased by 2,鲁南折盘面increased by 10,西南折盘面decreased by 10,河北折盘面remained unchanged,西北折盘面decreased by 15, CFR中国and CFR东南亚remained unchanged,进口利润remained unchanged,主力基差decreased by 5, and盘面MTO利润decreased by 80 [2]. Plastic - PE Price Data: From July 8 to July 14,东北亚乙烯remained unchanged,华北LL decreased by 10,华东LL decreased by 10,华东LD remained unchanged,华东HD decreased by 50, LL美金and LL美湾remained unchanged,进口利润remained unchanged,主力期货decreased by 7,基差increased by 20,两油库存remained unchanged, and仓单increased by 125 [6]. - PP Price Data: From July 8 to July 14,山东丙烯decreased by 80,东北亚丙烯remained unchanged,华东PP decreased by 15,华北PP decreased by 2,山东粉料remained unchanged,华东共聚decreased by 6, PP美金and PP美湾remained unchanged,出口利润remained unchanged,主力期货decreased by 2,基差remained unchanged,两油库存remained unchanged, and仓单remained unchanged [6]. PVC - Price Data: From July 8 to July 14,西北电石remained unchanged,山东烧碱increased by 15,电石法 - 华东decreased by 30,乙烯法 - 华东remained unchanged,电石法 - 华南remained unchanged,电石法 - 西北remained unchanged,进口美金价（CFR中国）remained unchanged,出口利润remained unchanged,西北综合利润remained unchanged,华北综合利润remained unchanged, and基差(高端交割品) remained unchanged [9][10].