瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20250715

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views - On July 15, the JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 911.5, down 0.38%. The Mongolian 5 raw coal was reported at 780 in the spot market. The China National Coal Transportation and Marketing Association emphasized scientific production rhythm, improved coal supply quality, strengthened industry self - discipline, and promoted market balance. The mine - end inventory generally decreased, market confidence improved, and the clean coal inventory continued to transfer from upstream mines and coal - washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises. The cumulative import growth rate declined, and the total inventory was neutral. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was above the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated as oscillating with a bullish bias [2]. - On July 15, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1514.0, down 0.85%. Some regions proposed a price increase in the spot market. The vice - president of the China Iron and Steel Association said that the domestic steel production has reached its peak, and the future domestic crude steel consumption is expected to remain at 8 - 9 billion tons. The industry shows an obvious trend of reducing production, but the industrial concentration is increasing. Fundamentally, the raw material supply is gradually improving, the hot metal output has slightly declined from the high level, most coal mines have no inventory pressure, and the coal mines have a strong willingness to support prices. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 63 yuan/ton this period. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was above the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated as oscillating with a bullish bias [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为911.50元/吨，环比下跌8.50元；J主力合约收盘价为1514.00元/吨，环比下跌11.00元 [2]。 - JM期货合约持仓量为814,923.00手，环比增加7,161.00手；J期货合约持仓量为54,685.00手，环比减少1,074.00手 [2]。 - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 60,314.00手，环比增加1,256.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为 - 3,642.00手，环比增加392.00手 [2]。 - JM1 - 9月合约价差为50.50元/吨，环比增加7.00元；J1 - 9月合约价差为46.50元/吨，环比增加2.50元 [2]。 - 焦煤仓单为1,600.00张，环比增加200.00张；焦炭仓单为90.00张，环比无变化 [2]。 3.2 Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为780.00元/吨，环比上涨23.00元；唐山准一级冶金焦价格为1,390.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]。 - 俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）价格为118.00美元/湿吨，环比无变化；日照港准一级冶金焦价格为1,220.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]。 - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1,330.00元/吨，环比无变化；天津港一级冶金焦价格为1,320.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]。 - 京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1,350.00元/吨，环比无变化；天津港准一级冶金焦价格为1,220.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]。 - 山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为930.00元/吨，环比无变化；内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为960.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]。 - JM主力合约基差为18.50元/吨，环比增加8.50元；J主力合约基差为 - 124.00元/吨，环比增加11.00元 [2]。 3.3 Upstream Situation - 110家洗煤厂原煤库存为300.77万吨，环比减少11.40万吨；精煤库存为197.07万吨，环比减少17.91万吨 [2]。 - 110家洗煤厂开工率为62.33%，环比增加2.61个百分点；原煤产量为42,107.00万吨，环比增加1,778.60万吨 [2]。 - 煤及褐煤进口量为3,303.70万吨，环比减少300.30万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为191.80万吨，环比增加3.80万吨 [2]。 - 16个港口进口焦煤库存为553.79万吨，环比增加29.08万吨；18个港口焦炭库存为255.68万吨，环比增加13.66万吨 [2]。 3.4 National Industry Situation - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存为892.35万吨，环比增加44.17万吨；独立焦企全样本焦炭库存为93.08万吨，环比减少9.02万吨 [2]。 - 247家钢厂炼焦煤库存为782.93万吨，环比减少6.67万吨；247家样本钢厂焦炭库存为637.80万吨，环比增加0.31万吨 [2]。 - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为12.48天，环比减少0.03天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.64天，环比增加0.12天 [2]。 - 炼焦煤进口量为738.69万吨，环比减少150.65万吨；焦炭及半焦炭出口量为0.00万吨，环比减少68.00万吨 [2]。 - 炼焦煤产量为4,070.27万吨，环比增加144.11万吨；独立焦企产能利用率为72.87%，环比减少0.30个百分点 [2]。 - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况为 - 63.00元/吨，环比减少11.00元；焦炭产量为4,170.00万吨，环比减少67.60万吨 [2]。 3.5 National Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.13%，环比减少0.31个百分点；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为89.87%，环比减少0.40个百分点 [2]。 - 粗钢产量为8,318.00万吨，环比减少336.50万吨 [2]。 3.6 Industry News - 特朗普称若俄罗斯50天内无法达成俄乌冲突协议将对俄征收100%二级关税，美国官员称还会对购买俄油国家实施二级制裁 [2]。 - 中国煤炭运销协会召开上半年煤炭经济运行分析座谈会，强调守牢安全稳定底线，科学把握生产节奏，提升煤炭供给质量，加强行业自律，整治内卷式竞争，促进煤炭市场供需平衡 [2]。 - 欧盟委员会委员表示若美欧贸易谈判失败，欧盟准备对价值约840亿美元的美国进口商品征收额外反制关税 [2]。 - 泰国财政部考虑对更多美国进口产品实行零关税 [2]。 - 美国商务部对无人机和多晶硅进口启动232调查 [2]。