瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20250715

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - SH2509 oscillated weakly and closed at 2,512 yuan/ton. The supply - side saw new device maintenance in Central and East China last week, with a slight change in caustic soda capacity utilization rate to 80.4%. The demand - side showed an increase in alumina and viscose staple fiber开工率, while a decrease in printing and dyeing开工率. The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories decreased last week. In July, the planned maintenance capacity of caustic soda decreased, but the caustic soda start - up rate was restricted due to the backlog of liquid chlorine. This week, with frequent stop - and - restart of devices, the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly. Affected by losses, the delivery volume of Shandong alkali plants to alumina enterprises decreased. Non - aluminum off - season demand is weak, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs. In the short term, low profits and limited downstream demand are the core contradictions. Recently, the non - aluminum purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and the spot price may remain firm. For futures, pay attention to the pressure around 2,600 yuan/ton for SH2509 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2,512 yuan/ton, the futures holding volume was 246,154 hands (an increase of 8,176 hands), the net holding volume of the top 20 futures was - 4,705 hands (a decrease of 2,591 hands), the trading volume was 519,094 hands (a decrease of 355,050 hands). The closing price of the January contract was 2,500 yuan/ton (a decrease of 9 yuan/ton), and the closing price of the May contract was 2,558 yuan/ton (a decrease of 6 yuan/ton) [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 910 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2,625 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 113 yuan/ton (an increase of 20 yuan/ton) [1] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, and in the Northwest was 220 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The price of thermal coal was 636 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 300 yuan/ton (an increase of 250 yuan/ton), and in Jiangsu was - 49.5 yuan/ton (an increase of 125.5 yuan/ton) [1] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,020 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of alumina was 3,150 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton) [1] 3.6 Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 80.4%, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous week. As of July 10th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 374,300 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 2.58% from the previous week and an increase of 2.64% year - on - year [1] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The alumina开工率 increased by 1.72% to 83.28% last week, with an average profit of 300.3 yuan/ton. The viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 2.63% to 77.80%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 decreased by 1.29% to 59.9%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 2.58% to 374,300 tons last week. The planned maintenance capacity of caustic soda in July decreased, but the start - up rate was restricted. This week, the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly. Affected by losses, the delivery volume of Shandong alkali plants to alumina enterprises decreased. Non - aluminum off - season demand is weak, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs. Recently, non - aluminum purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and the spot price may remain firm [1]