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苹果产业日报-20250715
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-15 09:36

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Summer消暑 fruits flooding the market impacts apple demand, slowing down the sales pace and weakening price drivers. However, the current inventory is at a five - year low, strongly supporting prices, so the apple market is expected to show a slightly bullish and volatile trend. Continued attention should be paid to production [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 7,862 yuan/ton, up 24; the main contract position is 96,958 lots, up 2,757; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 8,806 lots, up 783; the number of warehouse receipts is 0 [2]. - Spot Market: The spot price of Shandong Yantai Qixia apples (paper - bagged, above 80) is 4 yuan/jin; Shandong Yiyuan apples (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.4 yuan/jin; Gansu Jingning apples (paper - bagged, above 75) is 4 yuan/jin; Shaanxi Luochuan apples (paper - bagged, above 70) is 4 yuan/jin [2]. - Upstream Situation: The national apple orchard area is 1,955.77 thousand hectares, down 19.58; the national apple production is 5,128.51 tons, up 168.34 [2]. - Industry Situation: The average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.66 yuan/kg, up 0.12; the wholesale price of apples is 9.76 yuan/kg, up 0.03; the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 91.49 tons, down 7.82; Shandong's apple storage capacity ratio is 0.13, down 0.01; Shaanxi's is 0.06, down 0.01; the monthly apple export volume is 50,000 tons, down 20,000; the monthly apple export value is 5,152.5 million US dollars, down 2,552.9; the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 2,201,050.17 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.9 yuan/jin, up 0.1 [2]. - Downstream Situation: The average wholesale price of tangerines is 9.12 yuan/kg, up 0.28; pears is 6.73 yuan/kg, up 0.05; bananas is 6.33 yuan/kg, down 0.14; watermelons is 3.93 yuan/kg, down 0.03. The average daily morning arrival of trucks at Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets is 7.8 (unchanged), 11 (down 0.8), and 19.4 (down 0.6) respectively [2]. - Option Market: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for apples is 16.84%, up 0.09 and 0.1 respectively [2]. b. Industry News - On July 15, 2025, the trading of inventory apples in the production areas was relatively stable. The trading atmosphere in the western production areas improved, with more inquiries and purchases, and the market stabilized with prices based on quality. The trading of inventory apples in Shandong was a bit chaotic, with uneven fruit quality and different selling attitudes among farmers and merchants, mostly through bargaining [2]. - According to MySteel's preliminary estimate based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple production in the new season is expected to be 3,736.64 tons, an increase of 85.93 tons (2.35%) compared to the 2024 - 2025 season [2].