瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250715

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Alumina: The alumina market is in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand. The previous optimistic sentiment in the market has cooled, and it is gradually returning to the fundamentals. It is recommended to trade with a light - position, expecting a slightly stronger and volatile trend [2]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum market has a situation of a slight increase in supply and weak demand. Affected by the off - season and trade uncertainties, the upward space for the price of Shanghai aluminum may be limited [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cast aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum, the cost - support logic is relatively strong. In the short term, the upward space for the price of cast aluminum may be limited [2]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - Prices and Spreads: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,430 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,165 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The spread between this month and next month's contracts for Shanghai aluminum decreased by 5 yuan, while that for alumina increased by 73 yuan [2]. - Positions and Inventories: The positions of the main contracts of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy changed, with decreases in Shanghai aluminum and alumina and an increase in cast aluminum alloy. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 5,275 tons, and the Shanghai aluminum inventory on the SHFE increased by 8,565 tons [2]. - Other Indicators: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum increased by 703 hands, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.02 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum and Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum increased, while the price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot remained unchanged. The spot price of alumina increased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Basis: The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 500 yuan/ton, the basis of electrolytic aluminum increased by 25 yuan/ton, and the basis of alumina decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Premiums and Discounts: The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium increased by 150 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum discount decreased by 2.17 dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina: The production of alumina increased by 16.50 million tons, the demand increased by 26.32 million tons, and the supply - demand balance decreased by 15.33 million tons. The import volume increased by 5.68 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 5 million tons [2]. - Aluminum Scrap: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan and Shandong remained unchanged. The import volume of aluminum scrap decreased by 30,651.64 tons, and the export volume increased by 35.90 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Electrolytic Aluminum: The total production capacity increased by 0.50 million tons, the production of primary aluminum decreased by 27,381.21 tons, and the export increased by 18,421.29 tons. The production of aluminum products decreased by 0.20 million tons, and the export of un - forged aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 6.10 million tons [2]. - Recycled Aluminum Alloy Ingot: The production increased by 0.29 million tons, and the export increased by 0.76 million tons. The built - in production capacity decreased by 1.10 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - Automobile: The monthly automobile production was 2.809 million vehicles, an increase of 0.167 million vehicles [2]. - Real Estate: The national real - estate climate index was 93.60, a decrease of 0.11 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - Volatility: The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of Shanghai aluminum decreased, and the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased slightly [2]. - Put - Call Ratio: The put - call ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.16, an increase of 0.0711 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Trade: In the first half of the year, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 21.79 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. Exports were 13 trillion yuan, up 7.2%; imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, down 2.7% [2]. - Monetary Policy: At the end of June, the balance of broad money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%; the stock of social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [2]. - Automobile Registration: In the first half of the year, 16.88 million new motor vehicles were registered nationwide, including 5.622 million new energy vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 27.86% [2].