瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20250715

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 15, the silicon iron 2509 contract closed at 5494, up 0.33%. The spot price of silicon iron in Ningxia was reported at 5330. The start - up rate was running at a low level, the cost of Ningxia semi - coke decreased, and the overall demand expectation for steel products was still weak. The production profit of ferroalloys was negative, with an Inner Mongolia spot profit of - 230 yuan/ton and a Ningxia spot profit of - 70 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the operation should be treated as a volatile one [2]. - On July 15, the manganese silicon 2509 contract closed at 5784, up 0.35%. The spot price of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was reported at 5600. The manufacturer's start - up rate had been rising for 7 consecutive weeks at a low level, the inventory was moderately high, and the raw material manganese ore port inventory increased by 77,000 tons. The downstream molten iron output declined slightly from a high level. The profit was negative, with an Inner Mongolia spot profit of - 50 yuan/ton and a Ningxia spot profit of - 120 yuan/ton. Steel mills' procurement was cautious, and the tender price continued to fall. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the operation should be treated as a volatile one [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM (manganese silicon) main contract closing price was 5,784 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; SF (silicon iron) main contract closing price was 5,494 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract positions were 563,928 hands, down 758 hands; SF futures contract positions were 402,716 hands, down 4,825 hands [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in manganese silicon were - 49,665 hands, up 4,322 hands; the net positions of the top 20 in silicon iron were - 53,094 hands, up 750 hands [2]. - The SM 1 - 9 month contract spread was 38 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the SF 1 - 9 month contract spread was 60 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts were 84,381, down 395; SF warehouse receipts were 21,950, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of FeMn68Si18 in Inner Mongolia, Guizhou was 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Yunnan was 5,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - The price of FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5,360 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Qinghai was 5,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Ningxia was 5,330 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The manganese silicon index average was 5,579 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan; the SF main contract basis was - 164 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the SM main contract basis was - 184 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African Mn38 lump ore at Tianjin Port was 35 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98%) in the northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of secondary metallurgical coke in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium grade) in Shenmu was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The manganese ore port inventory was 4.327 million tons, up 77,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The manganese silicon enterprise start - up rate was 40.55%, up 0.21%; the silicon iron enterprise start - up rate was 31.20%, down 0.75% [2]. - Manganese silicon supply was 182,280 tons, up 2,170 tons; silicon iron supply was 98,700 tons, down 1,500 tons [2]. - Manganese silicon manufacturers' inventory was 220,800 tons, down 1,500 tons; silicon iron manufacturers' inventory was 70,200 tons, up 3,200 tons [2]. - Manganese silicon inventory days in national steel mills were 15.15 days, down 0.29 days; silicon iron inventory days in national steel mills were 15.20 days, down 0.24 days [2]. - The demand for manganese silicon in five major steel types was 124,928 tons, down 1,861 tons; the demand for silicon iron in five major steel types was 20,167.3 tons, down 314.4 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, down 0.31%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 89.87%, down 0.40% [2]. - The crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, down 3.365 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump said that if Russia fails to reach an agreement on the Russia - Ukraine conflict within 50 days, the US will impose a 100% secondary tariff on Russia and secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil [2]. - The China National Coal Association held a symposium on the coal economic operation in the first half of the year, emphasizing safety, production rhythm, supply quality, and industry self - discipline [2]. - The EU Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security said that if the US - EU trade negotiation fails, the EU is ready to impose additional counter - tariffs on US imports worth 72 billion euros (about 84 billion US dollars) [2]. - The Thai Ministry of Finance is considering zero - tariff on more US imports [2]. - The US Department of Commerce launched a 232 investigation on drone and polysilicon imports [2].