Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint On Tuesday, the I2509 contract fluctuated widely. Macro - wise, Trump threatened to impose "very severe, about 100% tariffs" on Russia if the Russia - Ukraine conflict cannot end within 50 days. In terms of supply - demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased while the arrivals increased, and the domestic port inventory changed from increasing to decreasing. The blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of steel mills continued a slight decline, but molten iron output remained around 2.4 million tons, and the demand for molten iron still provided support. Currently, supported by favorable policies and steel mills' price - holding, the iron ore price is running strongly. However, steel mills' purchasing intention is general, with cautious inquiry and mainly for rigid demand. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are回调 at high levels, and the green bar is expanding. Operationally, trade in the short - term range of 775 - 750, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 767 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan; the position volume is 668,688 hands, up 3,867 hands [2]. - The I 9 - 1 contract spread is 28.5 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 20,180 hands, up 4,019 hands [2]. - The I Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt is 3,100 hands, unchanged [2]. - The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 is 98.9 dollars/ton, down 0.69 dollars [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 818 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 797 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 703 yuan/dry ton, unchanged; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 30 yuan, down 2 yuan [2]. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 98.60 dollars/ton, up 0.30 dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.42, up 0.02 [2]. - The estimated import cost is 812 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industrial Situation - The weekly iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil are 29.871 million tons, down 78,000 tons; the weekly total arrivals at 47 ports in China are 28.832 million tons, up 3.477 million tons [2]. - The weekly iron ore inventory at 47 ports is 143.4689 million tons, down 1.3901 million tons; the weekly iron ore inventory of sample steel mills is 89.7964 million tons, up 610,700 tons [2]. - The monthly iron ore imports are 105.948 million tons, up 7.818 million tons; the weekly available days of iron ore are 21 days, up 3 days [2]. - The weekly daily output of 266 mines is 396,800 tons, down 7,200 tons; the weekly operating rate of 266 mines is 62.83%, down 1.57 percentage points [2]. - The weekly iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines is 507,200 tons, down 15,900 tons; the BDI index is 1,783, up 120 [2]. - The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 20.18 dollars/ton, up 0.85 dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 8.23 dollars/ton, up 0.48 dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.13%, down 0.31 percentage points; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 89.87%, down 0.40 percentage points [2]. - The monthly domestic crude steel output is 83.18 million tons, down 3.37 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.93%, down 0.54 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.36%, down 0.16 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.17%, down 3.54 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.23%, down 0.48 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From July 7th to July 13th, 2025, the global iron ore shipments were 29.871 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 78,000 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 25.588 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 938,000 tons. Australia's shipments were 17.383 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 643,000 tons, and the amount shipped to China was 14.301 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 236,000 tons. Brazil's shipments were 8.205 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.581 million tons [2]. - From July 7th to July 13th, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 28.832 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.477 million tons; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 26.621 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.782 million tons; the total arrivals at six northern ports were 11.479 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.641 million tons [2].
瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250715
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-15 09:35