合成橡胶产业日报-20250715

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Cost factors support the current price of cis - butadiene rubber, but downstream procurement remains cautious, and shipping resistance may increase. Short - term inventory levels are expected to increase slightly. Last week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises varied. The production schedules of semi - steel tire enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually recovered, while the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires was slightly dragged down by individual enterprise maintenance. This week, the production schedules of maintenance enterprises will return to normal, and there is room for the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises to recover. The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11300 - 11700 in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan; the position of the main contract was 22739, a decrease of 1690. The 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber was 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses was 2100 tons, an increase of 200 tons [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11650 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11600 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan. The basis of synthetic rubber was 115 yuan, an increase of 90 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil was 69.21 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.15 dollars; the price of WTI crude oil was 66.98 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.47 dollars. The Northeast Asian ethylene price was 820 dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 597 dollars/ton, an increase of 12.75 dollars; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1070 dollars/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9365 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan. The weekly capacity of butadiene was 14.78 million tons, unchanged; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.89%, a decrease of 2.02 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 23600 tons, an increase of 1270 tons; the daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 46.14%, an increase of 1.17 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 122500 tons, a decrease of 16900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 65.54%, a decrease of 1.44 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 526 yuan/ton, a decrease of 362 yuan. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32800 tons, a decrease of 400 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 26500 tons, an increase of 150 tons; the weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6270 tons, a decrease of 530 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 72.92%, an increase of 2.51 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 64.56%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, an increase of 800000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, an increase of 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.67 days, an increase of 0.22 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.76 days, a decrease of 0.72 days [2] Industry News - As of July 10, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32800 tons, a decrease of 400 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%. As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 65.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 61.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. The production schedules of semi - steel tire enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually recovered, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises. The maintenance of individual all - steel tire sample enterprises dragged down the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires. In June 2025, the heavy - truck market in China sold about 92000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June this year, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market in China was about 533300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2]