瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20250715

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The USDA's July cotton supply and demand report is bearish, and good weather and improved crop ratings are suppressing the upside potential of US cotton in the short term. There are risks from macro factors such as US tariffs on imports from Japan, South Korea and potential new 10% tariffs on BRICS countries. In China, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders, a slow decline in overall operating rates, and more cautious raw material procurement. Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and high - temperature weather in some areas of Xinjiang increases the risk of heat damage to cotton, supporting a slightly stronger price trend. However, the consumption off - season in the downstream is dragging on the price rhythm, so the overall trend is oscillating slightly stronger. Weather and macro factors should be continuously monitored [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,850 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 20,050 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 14,759 lots, up 2,947 lots; for cotton yarn futures, it is 109 lots, up 4 lots. The main contract positions of cotton are 546,688 lots, down 11,044 lots; for cotton yarn, it is 21,168 lots, down 1,042 lots. The cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 9,716 sheets, down 91 sheets; for cotton yarn, it is 98 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,302 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged. The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,651 yuan/ton; the landed price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 22,109 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan. The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,384 yuan/ton; the landed price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 23,902 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 616 tons, up 54 tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,218 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 85 tons, up 2.4 tons. The monthly import volume of cotton is 4 tons, down 2 tons; for cotton yarn, it is 100,000 tons, down 20,000 tons. The profit from imported cotton is 971 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan. The commercial inventory of cotton nationwide is 345.87 tons, down 69.39 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, up 1.52 days; the坯布 inventory days are 35.46 days, up 2.57 days. The monthly cloth output is 2.67 billion meters, down 0.05 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 195.1 tons, down 3.6 tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,357,773.7 million US dollars, up 197,117.9 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,263,177.3 million US dollars, up 5,210.9 million US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 15.96%, up 7.71%; for put options, it is 16.02%, up 7.78%. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.01%, up 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.35%, down 0.23% [2] Industry News - As of the week of July 13, 2025, the US cotton boll - setting rate is 23%, up from 14% the previous week, compared with 26% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 22%. The budding rate is 61%, up from 48% the previous week, compared with 62% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 62%. The good - to - excellent rate is 54%, up from 52% the previous week, compared with 45% in the same period last year [2]