碳酸锂产业日报-20250715

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of lithium carbonate has increased with the improvement of industry expectations, driving up the quotation of lithium ore prices, and the hedging opportunities in the futures market have also increased the demand for raw materials from lithium salt plants. However, the industry's supply is still under pressure, with high inventory levels, and downstream inventory - building willingness is relatively cautious. Therefore, current lithium price trading should be treated with caution. - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are slightly converging. - The recommended operation is to lightly short at high prices and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 66,660 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 115,519 hands, down 30,622 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 342,146 hands, down 14,015 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 760 yuan/ton, up 820 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 11,203 hands/ton, down 1 hand. [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 64,900 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 63,300 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,760 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 698 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 5,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,759 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] Industry Situation - Lithium carbonate production is 42,100 tons per month, down 5,800 tons; imports are 21,145.78 tons per month, down 7,190.11 tons; exports are 286.74 tons per month, down 447.55 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 47%, down 6 percentage points. The production of power batteries is 129,200 MWh per month, up 5,700 MWh. [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 55%, up 2 percentage points; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 49%, up 2 percentage points. The monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,268,000 units, down 2,000 units; the monthly sales are 1,329,000 units, up 22,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 44.32%, up 0.33 percentage points; the monthly export volume is 205,000 units, down 7,000 units. [2] Option Situation - The total subscription position is 155,979 contracts, up 22,108 contracts; the total put position is 60,607 contracts, up 8,513 contracts; the put - call ratio of total positions is 38.86%, down 0.0577 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.29%, up 0.0460 percentage points. [2] Industry News - In the first half of the year, 5.622 million new - energy vehicles were newly registered in China, a year - on - year increase of 27.86%, accounting for 44.97% of newly registered vehicles. - An A - share lithium mining enterprise executive said that the company's focus has shifted to cost reduction and control, and the current lithium price is still below most manufacturers' break - even lines. - The global power battery installed capacity increased by 110% year - on - year, and overseas shipments accounted for 30%. [2]