瑞达期货国债期货日报-20250715

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On July 15, the bond market was affected by multiple factors. The recent strength of the equity market has suppressed bond market sentiment, but the core combination of "weak economic recovery + low inflation" remains unchanged, and the loose capital - market situation continues to support the bond market. In the short term, the upside and downside space for bond yields is limited, and it is expected that Treasury bond futures will continue to fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - Futures Prices: On July 15, the closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts increased by 0.18%, 0.13%, 0.04%, and 0.47% respectively. Their trading volumes decreased by 7033, 4371, 1340, and 9323 respectively [2]. - Futures Spreads: Spreads such as TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509, and TS2512 - 2509 all increased slightly, while spreads like T09 - TL09, TF09 - T09, TS09 - T09, and TS09 - TF09 remained unchanged [2]. - Futures Positions: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL decreased by 2600, 3832, 67, and 539 respectively. The net short positions of T, TS, and TL had different changes, with T and TS increasing by 860 and 768 respectively, and TL decreasing by 242 [2]. 3.2 Bond Data - CTD Bond Net Prices: The net prices of several CTD bonds such as 250007.IB, 2500802.IB, 240020.IB, etc. all decreased [2]. - Active Bond Yields: The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year active bonds were 1.36%, 1.42%, 1.513%, 1.61%, and 1.6661% respectively, with the 1 - year yield decreasing by 1bp, the 3 - year increasing by 0.5bp, the 5 - year increasing by 0.05bp, and the 10 - year increasing by 0.01bp [2]. 3.3 Interest Rate Data - Short - term Interest Rates: The overnight silver - pledged repo rate decreased by 10.68bp, the 7 - day rate increased by 2.67bp, and the 14 - day rate decreased by 2bp. The overnight Shibor increased by 12bp, the 7 - day increased by 3.1bp, and the 14 - day increased by 4.4bp [2]. - LPR Rates: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of open market operations was 3425 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 690 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations, with a net investment of 2735 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Industry News - In June, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 24.8654 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%, and the real estate development investment was 4.6658 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2% [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of June 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [2]. - In the first half of the year, China's total import and export value to the US was 2.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%, with exports decreasing by 9.9% and imports decreasing by 7.7% [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - At 20:30 on July 15, the US June unadjusted CPI annual rate will be released. At 04:00 on July 16, Bank of England Governor Bailey will give a speech [3].