摩根士丹利：中国酒店

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Chinese hotel industry, highlighting significant growth potential in brand penetration and market expansion Core Insights - The total number of hotels in China has reached 350,000, with branded hotels increasing from 16% in 2017 to 40% currently, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 12% over five years, yet still below the global average of 72% [1][4] - The economy hotel segment constitutes 78% of the total hotel count but contributes less than 50% to market value, while high-end and mid-to-high-end hotels account for a higher proportion of room numbers, reaching 38% [1][5] - The market is highly fragmented, with even leading hotel groups holding relatively small market shares, such as 4%-8% in regions like Xinjiang [1][8] - The franchise model dominates, with over 90% of large hotel groups operating under this model, although this is still lower than international brands like Marriott and InterContinental, which operate at 99% [1][10] - The average room price for chain hotels in China is projected to be 235 RMB (approximately 30 USD) in 2024, influenced by hotel tier and city classification [1][11] Summary by Sections Market Supply - The supply of hotels in China has seen significant changes over the past decades, with a peak in growth around 2018, followed by a decline in 2019 exacerbated by the pandemic, but a rapid rebound has occurred since 2023 [3] Brand Development - The growth of branded hotels has been robust, maintaining an upward trajectory even during the pandemic, with expectations for further increases in brand penetration to 50%-60% in the future [4] Hotel Distribution - Economic hotels dominate the total property count at 78%, while high-end and mid-range hotels have a higher share in terms of room numbers, with high-end hotels making up 38% [5] City-Level Penetration - Brand penetration rates vary by city tier, with first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai at 60% and over 50% respectively, while second-tier cities are at 48% and third-tier cities at 33% [6] Revenue Channels - In terms of booking channels, OTAs account for 27% (possibly exceeding 30%), direct sales for 18%, and offline bookings for 55% [2][12][13] Performance Trends - The hotel market is expected to see stable occupancy rates in 2025, but average daily rates may decline, indicating a potential decrease in overall revenue despite stable guest flow [16] - The leisure segment is projected to perform well in 2025, while business demand is expected to decline by 4%-5% year-on-year [17] Company Performance - Among major listed hotel companies, HTST leads the market, while BTGM Xinjiang and ATPSD show relatively weaker performance, highlighting a divergence in post-pandemic recovery [19] International Brands - International hotel brands like Marriott and Hilton are rapidly expanding in China, with a significant portion of their global pipeline located in the country, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [20]