摩根士丹利：中国经济-准备好应对下半年经济增长放缓8

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the second half of 2025, expecting real GDP growth to slip below 4.5% year-on-year [3][9]. Core Insights - The divergence between real and nominal GDP has widened, with real GDP growth at 5.2% year-on-year in Q2, supported by front-loaded production and strong fiscal support, while nominal GDP fell to 3.9% year-on-year due to deepening deflation [2][9]. - Growth is anticipated to slow in the second half of 2025 due to weaker exports, fading fiscal impulse, and a continued deflation feedback loop [3][9]. - The report suggests that deflation is likely to persist, with a modest fiscal stimulus package of Rmb0.5-1 trillion expected in September/October, but this may not effectively address the underlying issues [4][9]. Summary by Sections Economic Performance - Q2 GDP growth was better than expected at 5.2% year-on-year, driven by fiscal and export front-loading [9]. - Nominal GDP year-on-year dropped by 0.7 percentage points to 3.9%, marking the first growth below 4% since COVID-19 [2][9]. Sector Analysis - Industrial production showed a year-on-year increase of 6.8% in June, with manufacturing up by 7.4% [6]. - Fixed asset investment year-to-date growth was 2.8%, with manufacturing investment at 5.1% and infrastructure at 5.3% [6]. - The property sector continues to struggle, with sales down by 7.2% and new starts down by 13.1% year-on-year [6]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a slowdown in growth to below 4.5% year-on-year in the second half of 2025 due to various factors including weaker global trade and continued deflation [3][9]. - June activity indicators show reduced transshipment and weaker retail sales, indicating a deepening drag from the housing sector [3][9].