美银：亚洲买方基金经理调查

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive sentiment towards the Asia Pacific ex-Japan equities, with no participants expecting a lower level for these equities a year out [3][20]. Core Insights - Investor concerns regarding trade tensions, particularly related to President Trump's policies, are diminishing, with 70% of participants viewing the potential impact on Asian economies as only slightly negative, marking the highest optimism since December [1]. - There is a notable recovery in growth outlook, with a net 31% of participants anticipating a weaker global economy, a significant improvement from 82% in April, and a net 26% expecting a weaker Asian economy, up from 89% [2]. - Earnings expectations have shifted positively, with a net 13% of participants expecting an earnings pick-up, a complete turnaround from the 78% who anticipated a slowdown in April [3][23]. Country Allocation - Japan is the most favored market, followed by Taiwan and Korea, while India has slipped to fourth place. Taiwan and Korea are benefiting from a resurgence in the semiconductor cycle, while China’s allocation has decreased [5][53]. Sector Preferences - In the Asia ex-Japan portfolio, there is a growth bias with overweight positions in semiconductors, software, tech hardware, and banks, while sectors such as materials, energy, industrials, and real estate are being avoided [6][56]. - In Japan, banks are the most preferred sector due to higher interest rates, followed by semiconductors, with a preference for value over growth [6][51]. Investment Themes - In China, AI and semiconductors are the most favored themes, while in India, consumption and infrastructure are of high interest. IT services are currently out of favor [7][62]. - The semiconductor cycle sentiment has improved significantly, with 45% of participants expecting stronger growth in this sector over the next 12 months [66].