摩根士丹利：Investor Presentation-亚洲-2017 年情景重现，但更具变数？5

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the investment rating for the Korean market is currently underweight, reflecting lower valuations compared to peers and a need for earnings growth to broaden out [14][16]. Core Insights - The Korean market is characterized by its cyclical nature, heavily influenced by both the US and China markets, with a constant coupling and decoupling dynamic [11][32]. - The KOSPI index has shown significant sectoral performance variations, with IT and Financials leading the market, while other sectors like Materials and Consumer Discretionary have underperformed [20][23]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in domestic demand starting from the second half of 2025, with an expected GDP growth of 1.1% for the year [33][34]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The KOSPI has experienced a year-to-date performance of 32.4% in 2025, recovering from a -9.6% performance in 2024 [18][26]. - Foreign investors have been net sellers in 2025 but have shown net buying activity since May [26][29]. Sector Analysis - The IT sector constitutes 36% of the KOSPI index and has performed well with a 32.4% increase year-to-date [20]. - The Financials sector has also shown strong performance, with a year-to-date increase of 49.4% [20]. - In contrast, the Materials sector has seen a decline of 41.2% in 2024, indicating significant volatility [20]. Economic Indicators - The report highlights that Korea continues to trade at lower valuations compared to Japan and China, with a focus on improving return on equity (ROE) [14][16]. - The Bank of Korea has lowered the policy rate to 2.5% and is expected to implement a larger supplementary budget in the second half of 2025 [37][38]. Earnings Growth - Earnings growth needs to broaden out, with the current consensus operating profit growth for the KOSPI at 10.0% for 2025, which is below historical averages [23][44]. - The report notes that consensus earnings are being adjusted down, reflecting a cautious outlook for the upcoming periods [44][46].