建信期货棉花日报-20250716

Group 1: Report Overview - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton oscillated and adjusted. The latest cotton price index for Grade 328 was 15,302 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis for 4129/29B/3.5 impurity in Northern Xinjiang's machine-picked cotton in 2024/25 was mostly at CF09+1400 - 1500 and above, with a small amount below this price. The basis quotation for machine-picked Grade 31 double-29 cotton in Kashgar, Southern Xinjiang was mostly at CF09+1100 and above, and the low-price quotation was still at CF09+950 - 1100, but the quantity at low prices decreased significantly, all for self-pickup in Xinjiang [7] - The overall market of pure cotton yarn changed little this week. Spinning mills mostly maintained last week's quotations, and actual transactions gradually followed up. Downstream procurement volume remained low, mainly for rigid demand. The market lacked confidence in the future market, and inland spinning mills continued to limit production. The market for all-cotton grey cloth has been continuously sluggish recently, with light shipments. Weaving factories produced spot goods, with low production and sales rates and accumulated finished product inventories. Currently, weaving factories have few orders, mainly small and scattered orders, and the current machine startup rate of weaving factories remains low [7] - As of July 13, in the international market, the budding rate of cotton in 15 major cotton-growing states in the US was 61%, 1 percentage point slower than the same period last year; the boll-setting rate was 23%, 3 percentage points slower than the same period last year; and the good-to-excellent rate was 54%, 9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The overall growth progress was slightly slower, but the good-to-excellent rate continued to rise, and there was still room for an increase in production. In the domestic market, the actual sown area increased year-on-year this year, and the expectation of an overall bumper harvest still exists. The industrial downstream remained weak, with overall weak demand. The cotton yarn inventory of downstream spinning mills continued to rise, and inland spinning mills continued to reduce the startup rate, but the startup rate of Xinjiang spinning mills remained firm, with a small decline. In the short term, there were still concerns about the tight supply of old crops, but considering the current off-season consumption stage, tariff disturbances still existed, and the weather had not yet had an impact, so the upside space should be viewed with caution [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to the General Administration of Customs, in June 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 27.315 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%. Among them, the exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were 12.048 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, and the exports of clothing and clothing accessories were 15.267 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative exports of textiles and clothing were 143.978 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [9] - As of the week ending July 13, 2025, the good-to-excellent rate of US cotton was 54%, compared with 52% in the previous week and 45% in the same period last year; the boll-setting rate was 23%, compared with 14% in the previous week, 26% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 22%; the budding rate was 61%, compared with 48% in the previous week, 62% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 62% [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes various data charts such as China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt total, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [18][19][26]