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建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250716
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-07-16 01:08

Group 1: Report Basic Information - Report industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Today, the national egg price remained stable. The average price in the main production areas was 2.73 yuan/jin, unchanged from yesterday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.00 yuan/jin, also unchanged from yesterday. The 08 contract fell 0.23% [7] - Last week, the egg price continued to be weak first and then stable. The northern red egg area was significantly weak, and Beijing in the main sales area had great pressure, driving down the prices in the surrounding areas. The egg price gradually stabilized in the middle of the week, and there was a slight increase in the southern region last Friday, with the peak - season expectation gradually approaching [8] Operation Suggestions - Although the fundamental direction is currently bearish, it is not recommended to chase short positions as the price is close to the historical bottom range and the spot still has upward momentum in the future. - Focus on whether the spot price has a continuous upward trend next week. Long positions can be placed on the 09 contract for band - trading. Risk - averse investors can buy put options to hedge the risk of the spot price not rising. Subsequently, pay attention to the increase in the spot price and the basis, and adjust the positions in real - time. There is no sign of a large - scale trend reversal for now [8] Group 3: Industry News - The inventory of laying hens in production is on an upward trend. As of the end of June, the monthly inventory of laying hens in production nationwide was about 1.34 billion, a 0.4% month - on - month increase, with a 6.8% year - on - year increase compared to the same period last year [9] - In June, the monthly output of layer chicks from sample enterprises was about 40.75 million, slightly less than 44.98 million in May and slightly more than 39.98 million in the same period in 2024. The monthly replenishment volume in June was moderately high in the past eight years [9] - The culling volume of chickens has gradually recovered since May, reaching a phased peak in June and then slightly declining due to the peak - season expectation in the summer. As of July 10, the average culling age of chickens was 504 days, 2 days earlier than last week and 8 days earlier than last month [10]