建信期货生猪日报-20250716

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Report Date: July 16, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures: On July 15, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened lower, then rose and fell back, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 14,360 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,230 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,250 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 230 lots to 162,061 lots [7]. - Spot: On July 15, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.54 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. Market Analysis - Demand: The price difference between fat and standard pigs widened slightly, and the utilization rate of pigsties increased, indicating higher enthusiasm for secondary fattening. Due to hot weather, terminal demand was weak, slaughterhouse orders were average, and the slaughter rate and volume remained low. On July 15, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 133,600 heads, an increase of 11,000 heads from the previous day and 29,000 heads from a week ago [8]. - Supply: According to Yongyi data, the planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 1.19% from June. There was phased pressure on栏 and reduced slaughter in the first ten days, and the slaughter weight increased slightly. Currently, the slaughter progress has recovered, and there are still secondary-fattened pigs to be slaughtered in the future [8]. Market Outlook - Short - term: The short - term reduction in slaughter boosted the rebound of futures and spot prices. Currently, the group's slaughter volume has recovered, and prices have slightly corrected [8]. - Medium - to - long - term: Pig supply will continue to increase. From mid - to - late July, group - owned farms may increase supply to meet monthly targets, and demand is in the off - season, so pig prices may face pressure. Futures contracts are slightly at a discount to the spot. The spot market's supply reduction to maintain prices has driven the rebound of futures and spot prices. In addition, the domestic anti - involution initiative is beneficial to the medium - to - long - term performance of pig prices, and the increasing environmental protection efforts in some areas support market sentiment [8]. Group 3: Data Overview - Profit: As of the week of July 11, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 165 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 44 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 58 yuan/head [17]. - Piglet Price: In the week of July 10, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 539 yuan/head, an increase of 10 yuan/head from the previous week [17]. - Utilization Rate: In late June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 53.9%, a ten - day increase of 9 percentage points [17]. - Price Difference: In the week of July 10, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.10 yuan/jin, the same as the previous week [17]. - Slaughter Weight: As of the week of July 11, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% [17].