建信期货沥青日报-20250716

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Research Team [4] - Researcher: Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Asphalt) [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: BU2509 opened at 3650 yuan/ton, closed at 3617 yuan/ton, with a high of 3662 yuan/ton, a low of 3606 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.39%, and a trading volume of 174,300 lots; BU2510 opened at 3604 yuan/ton, closed at 3565 yuan/ton, with a high of 3606 yuan/ton, a low of 3553 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.34%, and a trading volume of 29,000 lots [6] - Spot Market: Asphalt spot prices in Shandong market rose slightly, those in South China market declined, and those in other regions remained stable. Some major asphalt refineries in certain regions lowered settlement prices and offered preferential policies, leading to price drops in those regions [6] - Supply: Jinling Petrochemical in East China stopped asphalt production, Xinhai Petrochemical is expected to resume asphalt production in the second half of the month after switching to producing residual oil this week, and Shengxing Petrochemical in Shandong will intermittently switch to producing residual oil next week. The average operating load rate of asphalt plants is expected to decline next week [6] - Demand: There will be relatively less rainfall in northern regions in the future, which will support demand to some extent. Seasonal demand support should be the main focus in the future [6] - Outlook: The cost-side oil price is expected to have further upside potential. Asphalt supply and demand are both weak. The market should mainly focus on seasonal demand support, and the single-side price is expected to fluctuate upward following the oil price [6] Group 3: Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3660 - 4070 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. International oil prices fell, and the asphalt futures market opened high and then fluctuated lower. However, some refineries still had problems such as queuing for loading and quantity limits, resulting in limited resource circulation. Refineries and traders continued to push up asphalt spot prices, driving up the market price [7] - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3600 - 3650 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Maoming Petrochemical lowered the asphalt road transport price by 30 yuan/ton yesterday, and Guangxi Dongyou lowered the benchmark price by 30 yuan/ton today. Policy incentives to stimulate sales led to a decline in the high-end price in the South China market. Market demand was generally average, and downstream buyers mainly purchased on demand [7] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures: The report includes figures on asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][10][18]