贵金属日评-20250716

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: July 16, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Financial Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bond and Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [2] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The restructuring of the international trade - currency system and the demand for reserve diversification will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms and related economic situations will support the medium - term bull market. But the high price and PE ratio make the price volatility increase, and the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's interest - rate cut needs attention in Q3. It is expected that London gold will oscillate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce in the short term, and investors are advised to take a long - position approach with medium - low positions [6]. Section Summaries 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - The resumption of US aid to Ukraine and threats of sanctions against Russia boost the safe - haven demand for precious metals. The US dollar index has a slight pullback, pushing London gold to around $3360 per ounce. Overnight, speculative funds pushed London silver to break through the $39 per ounce resistance level, but profit - taking led to a pullback. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump's new policies. It is recommended that investors take a long - position approach with medium - low positions. This week, focus on China's Q2 GDP and June economic data, and US June inflation and consumption data [4]. Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - 3500 per ounce. International trade cooling and the US fiscal expansion bill weaken gold's demand, but Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks support the price. In June, speculative funds flowed into silver and platinum markets, and the gold - silver ratio has returned to the level before April. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce in the short term, and investors are advised to take a long - position approach with medium - low positions. Short - biased traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage [6]. Domestic Precious Metals Market | Contract | Pre - closing Price | High | Low | Closing Price | Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 782.06 | 782.14 | 776.58 | 781.09 | - 0.12% | 404,570 | 7131 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 9213 | 9231 | 9156 | 9231 | 0.20% | 1,002,552 | - 7677 | | Gold T + D | 777.46 | 777.00 | 771.80 | 776.13 | - 0.17% | 211,514 | - 3484 | | Silver T + D | 9172 | 9189 | 9117 | 9184 | 0.13% | 3,257,966 | 14962 | [5] 2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][10][12] 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - The EU accuses the US of resisting trade - agreement efforts and warns of counter - measures. Trump is open to further discussions before the new 30% tariff takes effect, and EU officials will go to the US for negotiations [18]. - Bitcoin breaks through $120,000 for the first time, with a 30% increase this year. Investors expect a policy victory this week [18]. - Trump says the US will send top - level weapons to NATO to support Ukraine, and will impose strict tariffs on Russia if no cease - fire agreement is reached in 50 days [18]. - The US Commerce Department launches a national - security investigation into imported drones, related parts, solar panels, and polysilicon [19].