Group 1: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating No rating information provided. Core Viewpoints - Soda ash is in an obvious oversupply situation with continuous inventory accumulation. After the end of maintenance, inventory accumulation may accelerate. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [1]. - Glass spot market sentiment is still strong, but the glass industry is in the summer rainy season off - season, and the rigid demand side has certain pressure. The industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply dilemma, and the market is expected to be volatile in the near future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Prices and Spreads: Glass prices in the central China region increased by 2.80%, and glass futures contracts 2505 and 2509 decreased by 1.35% and 2.81% respectively. Soda ash prices were generally stable, and futures contracts 2505 and 2509 decreased by 0.53% and 2.06% respectively [1]. - Supply: Soda ash production rate remained unchanged at 81.32%, and its weekly output was stable at 709,000 tons. Float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.38% to 158,400 tons, and photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. - Inventory: Glass factory inventory decreased by 2.87% to 6.7102 million heavy boxes. Soda ash factory inventory increased by 2.98% to 1.8634 million tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 4.39% to 238,000 tons [1]. - Real Estate Data: New construction area increased by 2.99% year - on - year, construction area decreased by 7.56% year - on - year, completion area increased by 15.67% year - on - year, and sales area increased by 12.13% year - on - year [1]. Group 2: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating No rating information provided. Core Viewpoints - The log market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The 09 contract is gradually returning to fundamental control and is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and subsequent policy expectations [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Prices and Spreads: Log futures contracts 2509, 2511, and 2601 increased by 0.25%, 0.13%, and 0.25% respectively, while 2507 decreased by 0.13%. Spot prices of some logs in ports were stable, and the outer - disk quotation increased by 4 US dollars per JAS cubic meter [2]. - Supply: Monthly port shipping volume increased by 2.12% to 1.76 million cubic meters, and the number of ships in New Zealand decreased by 8.62% [2]. - Inventory: As of July 11, the national total inventory of coniferous logs was 3.22 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.31% from the previous period [2]. - Demand: As of July 11, the daily average log delivery volume was 58,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 0.81 million cubic meters from the previous period [2]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating No rating information provided. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon spot and futures prices are rising. In the short term, prices will continue to fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to the risk of price decline due to increasing warehouse receipts [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Prices and Spreads: Industrial silicon spot prices increased by 150 - 200 yuan per ton, and the futures main contract increased by 90 yuan per ton to 8,785 yuan per ton. Some inter - month spreads changed significantly [3]. - Fundamental Data: In April, the national industrial silicon output decreased by 12.10% to 300,800 tons, and the national start - up rate decreased by 11.37% to 51.23%. In May, the output of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon, and recycled aluminum alloy increased [3]. - Inventory Changes: Xinjiang factory inventory decreased by 17.46% to 123,900 tons, and social inventory decreased by 0.18% to 551,000 tons. Warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.34% to 251,300 tons [3]. Group 4: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating No rating information provided. Core Viewpoints - Polysilicon spot prices are stable, and the futures market has room for basis repair. There is a divergence in the market. Although prices are rising under policy expectations, attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Prices and Spreads: The average price of N - type granular silicon decreased by 1.15%. The futures main contract PS2506 increased by 1.69% to 42,470 yuan per ton. Some inter - month spreads changed significantly [4]. - Fundamental Data: Weekly silicon wafer output decreased by 3.36% to 11.50 GW, and polysilicon output decreased by 5.00% to 22,800 tons. In May, polysilicon output increased by 5.10% to 101,000 tons [4]. - Inventory Changes: Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.47% to 276,000 tons, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 5.67% to 18.13 GW [4]. Group 5: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating No rating information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, rubber prices rebound due to macro - sentiment, but the fundamental weakness remains unchanged. A short - selling strategy is recommended, and short positions can be arranged in the range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan per ton [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Prices and Spreads: The price of domestic natural rubber increased slightly, with the price of Sanjiaoguo standard rubber increasing by 0.70%. Some inter - month spreads changed [5]. - Fundamental Data: In May, the output of Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China increased. The start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased, and the domestic tire output decreased slightly. The export volume of tires increased by 7.72% [5]. - Inventory Changes: Bonded area inventory increased by 0.05% to 632,377 units, and the futures inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE increased by 24.41% [5].
《特殊商品》日报-20250716
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-07-16 02:17