Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On the 15th, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated within a narrow range, with the main 2508 contract slightly down 0.02% at 20,430. The total open interest of the index decreased by 8,776 to 635,827 lots, and the 07 - 08 premium continued to narrow to 25. After the decline in futures prices, the market trading atmosphere improved, and downstream procurement willingness increased compared to last week. Near the contract roll - over, the monthly spread fluctuations led to changes in the spot premium or discount. The current automotive industry is in the off - season, with weakening demand and raw material supply shortages. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, cast aluminum is expected to continue to fluctuate, and the low negative spread structure of AD - AL will remain. China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains at a high level, with a slight decline in the short term due to capacity replacement. Downstream, due to multiple negative factors such as insufficient orders in the traditional off - season, high aluminum prices, and high - temperature weather, the operating rate remains weak, and the off - season effect at the terminal is prominent. On Monday this week, the inventory suddenly increased by 35,000 tons to over 500,000 tons, and the price support weakened. As the off - season arrives, both the supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum tend to be weak, while the smelting profit is high. The strategy is mainly to short - sell for hedging at high levels, and hold the AD - AL arbitrage [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 15th, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The main 2508 contract slightly decreased by 0.02% to 20,430. The total open interest of the index decreased by 8,776 to 635,827 lots, and the 07 - 08 premium continued to narrow to 25 [8]. - After the decline in futures prices, the market trading atmosphere improved, and downstream procurement willingness increased compared to last week. Near the contract roll - over, the monthly spread fluctuations led to changes in the spot premium or discount. The spot premium in East China was 50, the discount in the Central Plains was - 90, and the premium in South China was 40 [8]. - Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated narrowly following Shanghai aluminum. The 2511 contract closed flat compared to the previous day, and the AD - AL negative spread was - 480. In the current off - season of the automotive industry, with weakening demand and raw material supply shortages, cast aluminum is expected to continue to fluctuate under the situation of weak supply and demand, and the low negative spread structure of AD - AL will remain [8]. - China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains at a high level, with a slight decline in the short term due to capacity replacement. Downstream, due to multiple negative factors such as insufficient orders in the traditional off - season, high aluminum prices, and high - temperature weather, the operating rate remains weak, and the off - season effect at the terminal is prominent. On Monday this week, the inventory suddenly increased by 35,000 tons to over 500,000 tons, and the price support weakened [8]. - As the off - season arrives, both the supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum tend to be weak, while the smelting profit is high. The strategy is mainly to short - sell for hedging at high levels, and hold the AD - AL arbitrage [8]. 2. Industry News - As the July 9 tariff deadline approaches, the EU - US trade negotiation has entered a critical stage. The EU Commission spokesperson said on Monday that the negotiation has made progress and entered the "beginning of the final stage" and will at least reach a principled agreement. Previously, US President Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods if there was no breakthrough in the EU - US trade negotiation before July 9. Currently, the US imposes a 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products, a 25% tariff on the automotive sector, and a 10% benchmark tariff on almost all other goods [9]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development emphasized the importance of promoting the stable, healthy, and high - quality development of the real estate market. Local governments should take responsibility, make full use of the autonomy in real estate regulation policies, implement policies according to local conditions, and continuously consolidate the stable situation of the real estate market [10]. - On July 3, PowerChina announced that its subsidiary signed a mining and transportation project contract for the KEBO bauxite in the TELIMELE MADINA DIAN area of Guinea with a contract value of approximately 5.063 billion yuan. The project is located in the MADINA DIAN area of Telimele Province, Kindia Region, Guinea. The main project content includes bauxite exploration, overburden stripping, waste ore excavation, mining, and transportation in a 204.37 - square - kilometer mining area. The expected mining volume is 28 million tons, and the total land transportation length is approximately 197 kilometers. The total project duration is about 72 months, with no warranty period [10]. - On July 3, Vedanta announced its key metal production in FY26Q1 (April - June 2025). The alumina production at Lanjigarh reached a record high of 587,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9% and a month - on - month increase of 36%. The quarterly electrolytic aluminum production was 605,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% and flat month - on - month [10].
铝日报-20250716
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-07-16 02:23