大越期货燃料油早报-20250716

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but gives a neutral view on the fundamentals of fuel oil, with some factors being bullish and others bearish [3] 2. Core View - The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil are continuously suppressed by the surplus of spot supply and the stable arrival of arbitrage cargoes, and the peak of summer power - generation demand is fading. The market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil remains around the current level. In the short term, the increase in supply and relatively weak demand may weaken the fundamentals of the low - sulfur fuel oil market in the next few weeks. With the decline of crude oil prices and lack of support from news, downstream inventory replenishment is mainly for rigid demand, and the market sentiment is cautious. It is expected that fuel oil will fluctuate in the short term. The FU2509 is expected to trade in the range of 2850 - 2900, and the LU2509 in the range of 3620 - 3680 [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The FU2509 is expected to trade in the range of 2850 - 2900, and the LU2509 in the range of 3620 - 3680. The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil are under pressure, and the short - term fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil may weaken. The market is expected to be cautious with short - term fluctuations [3] 3.2 Multi - Short Concerns - Likely Positive Factors: The expected increase in summer power - generation demand [4] - Likely Negative Factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxation of sanctions on Russia. The market is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - Fundamentals: The surplus of spot supply and stable arrival of arbitrage cargoes suppress high - sulfur fuel oil, and the summer power - generation peak is fading. The short - term supply increase and weak demand may weaken the low - sulfur fuel oil market [3] - Basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 63 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 69 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3] - Inventory: The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of July 9 was 20.809 billion barrels, a decrease of 5.2 million barrels [3] - Market Trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - Main Positions: The main positions of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are short, and the short positions are increasing [3] 3.4 Spread Data - The report does not provide a detailed analysis of spread data, but shows the price changes of futures and spot prices of different fuel oil varieties and their spreads [5][6] 3.5 Inventory Data - The inventory data of Singapore fuel oil from April 23 to July 2 are presented, showing the inventory volume and its changes over time [8]