大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250716

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE, with cost - demand game and tariff policies as the main logics, the market is expected to be volatile today due to factors like OPEC's continuous production increase, off - season demand, weak downstream demand, and new production capacity pressure [4]. - For PP, also under the influence of cost - demand game and tariff policies, the market is expected to be volatile today considering OPEC's production increase and weak downstream demand [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In June, PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, in the contraction range for three consecutive months; Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, with continuous production increase for four months. It's the off - season for agricultural films, downstream demand is weak, and new production capacity pressure remains. The current LL delivery spot price is 7210 (-50), showing a generally bearish situation [4]. - Basis: The basis of LLDPE 2509 contract is - 11, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.2%, neutral [4]. - Inventory: PE comprehensive inventory is 55.4 tons (+5.4), bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, bearish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today due to factors such as OPEC's production increase, off - season demand, and new production capacity pressure [4]. - Likely Factors: Cost support is a bullish factor, while new production capacity release and weak demand are bearish factors [6]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - data. The current PP delivery spot price is 7180 (-0), with a generally bearish situation. It's the off - season for downstream demand, and demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak [7]. - Basis: The basis of PP 2509 contract is 165, with a premium/discount ratio of 2.4%, bullish [7]. - Inventory: PP comprehensive inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.1), neutral [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [7]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a decrease in short positions, bearish [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today due to OPEC's production increase and weak downstream demand [7]. - Likely Factors: Cost support is a bullish factor, and weak demand is a bearish factor [9]. Spot and Futures Data - LLDPE: The current spot price of the delivery product is 7210 (-50), the 2509 contract price is 7221 (-63), and the basis is - 11 [4][10]. - PP: The current spot price of the delivery product is 7180 (-0), the 2509 contract price is 7015 (-52), and the basis is 165 [7][10]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [15]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906 [17].