大越期货尿素早报-20250716

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea futures market is expected to fluctuate today. Internationally, the urea price is strong due to supply tensions caused by international situation fluctuations and expected higher Indian tender prices. Domestically, there is still a significant oversupply situation, with high开工率 and inventory, weak industrial and agricultural demand, and no more - than - expected relaxation of export policies [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures price has been fluctuating recently. International supply tensions have led to a strong international urea price. In the domestic market, the开工 rate has declined slightly but remains high, and inventory is generally high. Industrial demand, including for compound fertilizers and melamine, has decreased, and agricultural demand is expected to weaken again. The overall domestic urea market has a clear oversupply situation, and the export policy has not been relaxed beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1830 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 99, with a premium - discount ratio of 5.4%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.24 million tons (+55,000 tons), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Futures Chart: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral signal [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the UR main contract has decreased, but it is still a bullish signal [4]. - Expectation: The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate today, with a strong international price and a significant domestic oversupply situation and no more - than - expected relaxation of export policies [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production volume, net import volume, and apparent consumption have also generally shown an upward trend. The import dependence has fluctuated between 8.4% and 19.3%. The ending inventory and actual consumption have also changed accordingly. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 49.06 million tons, with an 11.0% growth rate [10]. Spot and Futures Market Conditions - Spot Market: The spot price of the delivery product is 1830, unchanged. The prices in Shandong and Henan are also 1830, unchanged. The FOB China price is 2582 [6]. - Futures Market: The price of the 09 contract is 1731, down 33; the price of UR01 is 1707, down 24; the price of UR05 is 1723, down 15 [6]. - Inventory: The warehouse receipt is 2630, unchanged. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.24 million tons, the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.035 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 205,000 tons [6].