Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, limited improvement in terminal demand, and inventory at a high level in the same period [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures decreased by 2.18% to 1,214 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged at 1,200 yuan/ton, and the main basis increased by 65.85% to - 14 yuan/ton [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1,200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [12]. - The production profit of heavy soda ash was at the lowest level in the same period in history, with a profit of - 134.30 yuan/ton for the North China ammonia - soda process and - 113.50 yuan/ton for the East China combined - soda process [15]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 81.32%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output of soda ash was 708,900 tons, with heavy soda ash at 400,100 tons, at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there were large - scale capacity expansions in the soda ash industry. The planned new capacity in 2025 was 7.5 billion tons, with an actual production of 1 billion tons [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 92.40% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 158,400 tons, and the operating rate was 75.68%, showing a stable recovery [28]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continued to decline. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the industry reduced production, and the daily melting volume in production decreased significantly [31]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of soda ash in factories nationwide was 1.8634 million tons, an increase of 2.98% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the five - year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provided the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates [35]. Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The rebound of the downstream glass market boosted the sentiment of the soda ash market [3]. - Negative factors: High supply of soda ash, limited improvement in terminal demand, inventory at a high level in the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved [4].
大越期货纯碱早报-20250716
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-16 02:29