沪锌期货早报-20250716

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The Shanghai zinc futures (ZN2509) are expected to oscillate and weaken. LME inventory warrants and SHFE warrants are both increasing [2][20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1153,000 tons, consumption was 1,130,200 tons, with a surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, production was 4,451,400 tons, consumption was 4,507,900 tons, with a shortage of 56,500 tons. In April, global zinc sheet production was 1,072,200 tons, and from January to April, global zinc ore production was 4,040,600 tons [2]. - The basis is +100 with the spot price at 22,170, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - On July 15, LME zinc inventory increased by 5,200 tons to 118,600 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 2,013 tons to 11,184 tons, which is bearish [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed an oscillating trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average trending upward, which is bullish [2]. - The main positions are net long, but the long positions are decreasing, which is bullish [2]. 2. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes (July 15) - The trading volume of zinc futures on July 15 was 216,448 lots, with a turnover of 2,392,324,480 yuan, and the total open interest was 236,504 lots, a decrease of 1,770 lots [3]. 3. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes (July 15) - Zinc concentrate in Linzhou was priced at 16,880 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; zinc ingots in Aoshi were 22,170 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; galvanized sheets in China were 3,951 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; galvanized pipes in China were 4,289 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton; zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,700 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; zinc powder in Changsha was 26,870 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,550 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; and secondary zinc oxide in Lin was 7,694 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 4. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (July 3 - July 14) - On July 14, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 742,000 tons, an increase of 42,000 tons compared to July 7 and 15,000 tons compared to July 10 [5]. 5. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report (July 15) - The total SHFE zinc warrants on July 15 were 11,184 tons, an increase of 2,013 tons. In Guangdong, the warrants increased significantly, with Zhongchu Shengshi increasing by 125 tons, Guangdong Jushen increasing by 396 tons, and Shengui increasing by 521 tons. In Tianjin, the warrants also increased, with Shanggang Yuncang Tianjin increasing by 760 tons and Quansheng Logistics Tianjin increasing by 732 tons [6]. 6. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics (July 15) - The total LME zinc inventory on July 15 was 118,600 tons, an increase of 5,200 tons from the previous day. The注销 ratio was 22.45% [8]. 7. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The production of refined zinc in June 2025 was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production for July is 470,300 tons [16]. 8. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes (July 15) - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fees for 50% grade vary by region, generally ranging from 3,400 to 4,000 yuan/metal ton. The import processing fee for 48% grade is 60 US dollars/dry ton [18]. 9. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking (July 15, Contract zn2509) - In terms of trading volume, Guotai Junan ranked first with 21,619 lots, an increase of 1,123 lots. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 21,225 lots, an increase of 215 lots. In terms of short positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 10,712 lots, a decrease of 2,072 lots [19].