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建信期货镍日报-20250716
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-07-16 02:28

Report Overview - Report Name: Nickel Daily Report - Date: July 16, 2025 - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The current nickel industry chain is showing continuous weakness. After a brief rebound, the nickel market has turned down again, and it is expected to continue its weak trend. The decline in the price of refined nickel, the weakening support at the ore end, the downward shift in the bargaining range of ferronickel, the high inventory in the stainless - steel market, and the weak demand for nickel sulfate all contribute to this situation [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - Market Performance: On the 15th, Shanghai nickel prices fell again, breaking through the 120,000 - yuan integer mark, with an intraday decline of 1.15%. The main contract 2508 closed at 119,380. The total open interest of the index increased by 14,499 to 163,416 lots [8]. - Spot Market: In the off - season, the spot trading of refined nickel is average, with enterprises mainly purchasing on demand. The spot supply is sufficient. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,050 yuan/ton, and the premium range of mainstream brand electrowon nickel is - 100 to 300 yuan/ton [8]. - Ore End: The support at the ore end in the industrial chain is weakening. The premium of Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore has started to decline, and there is a further risk of ore price decline [8]. - Ferronickel: The overall bargaining range of ferronickel has shifted downward, ferronickel plants' losses have intensified, and some have cut production. Although tariffs do not directly affect nickel imports and exports, the market is worried about the impact on the external demand of the stainless - steel end. During the traditional consumption off - season, inventory is high, and high summer temperatures further weaken downstream demand [8]. - Nickel Sulfate: On the 15th, the price of nickel sulfate dropped significantly by 200 to 27,220 yuan. The main reason is that the demand for energy batteries is in the off - season with limited support, and it is expected to remain weak [8]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - Indonesian Nickel Production: In 2025, the actual nickel ore production in Indonesia was only 120 million tons, while the approved quota for the first half of the year was 364.1 million tons, about three times the actual production. The main reason is the impact of the rainy season in major mining areas. In the first half of the year, Indonesia still imported 4.6 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines. Since January 2025, the cost pressure on the Indonesian nickel industry has continued to rise due to policies such as the Domestic Marketing Obligation (DMO), the increase in the biodiesel blending ratio, and new export fees [9][11]. - Battery Energy Storage Projects: - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh, which is an important step towards its goal of deploying 10,000 MWh of battery energy storage capacity within a year [11]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system (BESS) project in Scotland, which will help Scotland achieve its net - zero emissions and renewable energy consumption goals [11]. - Solar Cell Innovation: A research team in Turkey has developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel (Ni) contacts with almost no silver (Ag). The silver usage is less than 0.5 mg/W, far lower than that of traditional silver - contact cells, while achieving almost the same efficiency, which is expected to significantly reduce production costs [11].