工业硅期货早报-20250716

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply last week was 75,000 tons, with a 1.35% week-on-week increase; demand was 77,000 tons, a 11.59% week-on-week growth. The cost support in Xinjiang has weakened during the wet season. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8,660 - 8,910 [6]. - For polysilicon, last week's output was 22,800 tons, a 5.00% week-on-week decrease, and the July production schedule is forecasted to be 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase compared to the previous month. Overall demand shows a continuous decline, and the 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 41,755 - 43,185 [9][11]. Summaries by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 75,000 tons, up 1.35% week-on-week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 77,000 tons, up 11.59% week-on-week. Polysilicon inventory is at a low level, organic silicon inventory is high, and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is high [6]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygenated 553 in Xinjiang is 3,189 yuan/ton, and the cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On July 15, the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 8,900 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 115 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 0.18% week-on-week, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 12.99%, and major port inventory decreased by 1.58% [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the 09 contract price closed above the MA20 [6]. - Main position: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - Expectation: The supply production schedule has decreased and remains at a low level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8,660 - 8,910 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's output was 22,800 tons, down 5.00% week-on-week, and the July production schedule is forecasted to be 106,800 tons, up 5.74% compared to the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer output was 11.5 GW, down 3.36% week-on-week, and inventory decreased by 5.67%. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. Battery cell and component production also show a downward trend [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N-type polysilicon in the industry is 35,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 10,450 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On July 15, the price of N-type polysilicon was 44,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 3,380 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [11]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 276,000 tons, a 1.47% week-on-week increase, at a historically low level [11]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the 09 contract price closed above the MA20 [11]. - Main position: The main position is net long, with an increase in long positions [11]. - Expectation: Overall demand shows a continuous decline, cost support remains stable, and the 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 41,755 - 43,185 [11]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - Price: The prices of most industrial silicon contracts and spot prices showed an upward trend [17]. - Inventory: Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory all decreased to varying degrees [17]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The production and capacity utilization rates of sample enterprises in different regions showed different trends [17]. - Cost and Profit: The costs and profits of industrial silicon production in different regions and specifications also showed different trends [17]. Polysilicon - Price: The prices of polysilicon and related products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends [19]. - Inventory: The inventory of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also showed different trends [19]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The production and capacity utilization rates of polysilicon and related products showed different trends [19]. - Cost and Profit: The costs and profits of polysilicon production and related products also showed different trends [19].