大越期货甲醇早报-20250716

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market in ports is influenced by the intensifying Red Sea situation, providing some macro - level support. However, with the recovery of overseas plants, the fundamentals may gradually return to a pattern of relatively loose supply and demand, and the short - term port methanol market will likely maintain a range - bound pattern. The inland methanol market has weak supply and demand. The price adjustment space is expected to be limited this week. The report predicts that the methanol price will mainly fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating in the range of 2350 - 2420 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: The port market has mixed factors, while the inland market has weak supply and demand. The price adjustment space is expected to be small this week. Focus on whether olefin plants will make external purchases [5]. - Basis: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2410 yuan/ton, with a basis of 24 for the 09 contract, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5]. - Inventory: As of July 10, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 56.76 tons, a cumulative increase of 6.79 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas increased by 3.65 tons to 31.29 tons [5]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the moving average [5]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [5]. - Expectation: The methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating in the range of 2350 - 2420 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: Some plants are shut down, the methanol operating rate in Iran has decreased, the port inventory is at a low level, a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production, Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong plans to put into production a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant this month, and northwest CTO plants are purchasing external methanol [6]. - Bearish Factors: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed operation, there are expected to be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, the formaldehyde market has entered the traditional off - season, the MTBE operating rate has significantly declined, coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling, and some plants in production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price: The spot price of methanol in different regions has shown different trends. For example, the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged this week, while the price in Fujian decreased by 1.23% [9]. - Market Chart: The futures closing price was 2386 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous period. The number of registered warrants increased by 723 to 9251, and the number of effective forecasts decreased by 723 to 0 [8]. - Spread Structure: The basis was - 1 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous period. The import spread was 44 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton from the previous period [8]. - Operating Rate: The weighted average national operating rate was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous period. The operating rates in different regions such as Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest all decreased [8]. - Inventory: The inventory in East China ports was 42.62 tons, an increase of 8.35 tons from the previous period, while the inventory in South China ports was 14.14 tons, a decrease of 1.56 tons from the previous period [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic Plants: Many domestic methanol plants are in a state of shutdown, maintenance, or reduced load, including plants in Northwest, North China, East China, Southwest, and Northeast regions [54]. - Overseas Plants: Some overseas methanol plants are in the process of restarting or have normal operations, while some are in the process of maintenance [55]. - Olefin Plants: Some olefin plants are in a state of shutdown, maintenance, or normal operation, and some new projects are expected to be put into production [56].