大越期货PVC期货早报-20250716

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include a rebound in overall supply pressure, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4940 - 5010 [12][13][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Positive Factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [12]. - Negative Factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. - Main Logic: The overall supply pressure is strong, and domestic demand recovery is sluggish [13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Supply Side: In June 2025, PVC production was 1991340 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.40%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 338190 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 114390 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.62%. Supply pressure decreased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a small increase in production scheduling [7]. - Demand Side: The overall downstream开工率 was 41.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.77 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 34.55%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 37.67%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.83 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 72.22%, unchanged month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 73.58%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain weak [7]. - Cost Side: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 445.08 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 19.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 620.57 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 10.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2630.35 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in profit of 1.30%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8]. - Basis: On July 15, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 45 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [9]. - Inventory: Factory inventory was 381590 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.21%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 296790 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.61%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 84800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.22%. Social inventory was 392700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.25%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 6.18 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32%. It is neutral [9]. - Market: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20. It is bullish [9]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions increased. It is bearish [9]. - Expectation: The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is strengthening, and the overall cost is strengthening. This week, supply pressure decreased. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. Current demand may remain weak. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. The PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4940 - 5010 [9]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - Provides yesterday's market overview data, including prices, price changes, and inventory changes of different types of PVC enterprises, downstream开工率, and profit and cost data [16]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - Displays the historical trend chart of the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price from 2022 to 2025 [19]. 3.5 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - Displays the historical trend chart of the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread of PVC futures from 2024 to 2025 [25]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - Lancoke: Shows the price, cost - profit,开工率, inventory, and daily output trends of Lancoke from 2020 to 2025 [28]. - Calcium Carbide: Displays the price, cost - profit,开工率, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide from 2019 to 2025 [31]. - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt: Presents the price, production, and monthly production trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt from 2020 to 2025 [33]. - Caustic Soda: Shows the price, cost - profit,开工率, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, double - ton price difference, and inventory trends of caustic soda from 2019 to 2025 [36][39]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - Displays the capacity utilization rate, production profit, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production trends of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method from 2018 to 2025 [41][43]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - Sales and Pre - sales: Shows the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, and weekly production - sales ratio trends of PVC from 2019 to 2025 [47][48]. - Downstream开工率: Displays the开工率 trends of PVC profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - Paste Resin: Presents the profit, cost, monthly production, and apparent consumption trends of paste resin from 2019 to 2025 [53]. - Real Estate and Infrastructure: Displays the investment completion amount, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area of real estate, as well as the social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year trends from 2019 to 2025 [56][59]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - Displays the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [61]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - Shows the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB price difference (Tianjin - Taiwan), and vinyl chloride import price difference (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) trends from 2018 to 2025 [63]. 3.11 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Presents the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from May 2024 to June 2025, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export [66].