大越期货原油早报-20250716
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-16 03:06
- Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - OPEC indicates that global economic performance in the second half of the year may exceed expectations despite trade conflicts, and refineries' high crude oil absorption to meet increased summer travel will support demand. However, API inventory accumulation and weakened expectations of sanctions on Russian oil are suppressing oil prices. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 515 - 525, and long - term investment should be on hold [3]. - Short - term geopolitical conflicts drive up oil prices, while mid - to long - term prices await the summer demand peak season [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: OPEC's view supports demand, but potential sanctions on Russian oil may change the market. The relationship between countries' purchase of Russian oil and export to the US needs to be balanced [3]. - Basis: On July 15, the basis was 0.37 yuan/barrel, with the spot at par with the futures, indicating a neutral situation [3]. - Inventory: US API and EIA inventories increased more than expected, and Cushing region inventory also rose, while Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged, showing a bearish trend [3]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is near the average, suggesting a bearish outlook [3]. - Main Position: As of July 8, WTI crude oil main position long orders decreased, and Brent crude oil main position long orders increased, presenting a neutral situation [3]. - Expectation: Short - term oil prices will fluctuate between 515 - 525, and long - term investment should be on hold [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Trade News: The US will impose a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods, and the EU may impose tariffs on $84.1 billion worth of US goods if trade talks with the US fail [5]. - Nuclear Agreement News: The US and European countries set the end of August as the de - facto deadline for reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran. If the agreement is not reached, the "rapid re - imposition of sanctions" mechanism will be activated, but Iran opposes it [5]. - Ukraine Conflict News: Putin ignores Trump's threat of sanctions and plans to continue the war in Ukraine until Western countries accept his peace terms, and his territorial demands may expand [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: Intensified Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - Bearish Factors: Three - month consecutive production increase by OPEC+, tense trade relations between the US and other economies, and cease - fire between Iran and Israel [6]. - Market Driver: Short - term geopolitical conflicts drive up prices, and mid - to long - term prices await the summer demand peak season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Quotes: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude all decreased, with declines of 0.72%, 0.69%, 0.15%, and 3.09% respectively [7]. - Spot Quotes: The prices of various types of crude oil in the spot market also decreased, with declines ranging from 0.69% to 3.15% [9]. - Inventory Data: API and EIA inventories showed an overall increasing trend in recent weeks [10][14]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position: As of July 8, the net long position was 209,374, a decrease of 25,319 compared to July 1 [17]. - Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position: As of July 8, the net long position was 222,347, an increase of 55,630 compared to July 1 [20].