大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250716

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is characterized by a situation of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile on a month - on - month basis, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [9][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,813 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.80%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate decreased slightly, while the cost of purchased lithium mica remained flat. The production profit from spodumene was positive, while that from lithium mica was negative. The cost of the salt lake end was lower than that of the ore end, with a high profit margin and strong production motivation [8]. - Basis: On July 15, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,900 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 1,760 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory was 140,793 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.77%, higher than the historical average. The inventory situation was neutral overall [8]. - Disk: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish signal [8]. - Main Force Position: The net short position of the main force increased, showing a bearish signal [8]. - Expectation: In June 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 physical tons, and it is predicted that the production in the next month will be 81,150 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.92%. The import volume in June was 22,500 physical tons, and it is predicted that the import volume in the next month will be 22,000 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.22%. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The supply surplus situation has intensified, and the lithium carbonate 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 65,900 - 67,420 [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Price and Basis: The futures closing prices of different contracts showed various changes, with increases and decreases. The basis also showed different degrees of change, mostly narrowing [13]. - Upstream Prices: The prices of lithium ore, lithium mica concentrate, and other upstream products showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) decreased by 0.15%, while the price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) remained unchanged [13]. - Positive Electrode Materials and Lithium Battery Prices: The prices of positive electrode materials and lithium batteries also showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of some ternary precursors decreased, while the price of some lithium iron phosphate increased slightly [13]. 3.3 Supply - Related Data - Lithium Ore Supply: The production, import volume, and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore showed different trends over time. The cost and profit of lithium ore production also changed. For example, the daily production cost of spodumene decreased by 0.09%, and the production profit increased significantly [17]. - Lithium Carbonate Supply: The production, import volume, and export volume of lithium carbonate showed different trends. The production capacity and utilization rate also changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34% compared with the previous month [17]. - Lithium Hydroxide Supply: The production, import volume, and export volume of lithium hydroxide showed different trends. The production capacity and utilization rate also changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium hydroxide in June 2025 was 24,450 tons, a decrease of 4.68% compared with the previous month [17]. 3.4 Demand - Related Data - Lithium Battery Demand: The production, sales, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends. The price and cost of lithium batteries also changed. For example, the monthly production of power batteries increased by 1.93% [17]. - Ternary Precursor Demand: The production, demand, and price of ternary precursors showed different trends. The capacity utilization rate and profit also changed. For example, the monthly production of ternary precursors increased in some series [60]. - Ternary Material Demand: The production, demand, and price of ternary materials showed different trends. The cost and profit also changed. For example, the price of some ternary materials decreased slightly [66]. - Phosphorus Iron/Phosphorus Iron Lithium Demand: The production, demand, and price of phosphorus iron and phosphorus iron lithium showed different trends. The cost and profit also changed. For example, the monthly production of phosphorus iron increased by 2.09% [71]. - New Energy Vehicle Demand: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles showed different trends. The sales penetration rate and inventory index also changed. For example, the production of new energy vehicles decreased slightly, and the sales penetration rate decreased by 5.96% [79][80].