《能源化工》日报-20250716

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - Urea: The recent decline in the futures market is due to weak domestic demand, with summer agricultural demand weakening and industrial demand affected by high temperatures. Although export quotas are being implemented, the second - batch quota has not circulated, so the domestic supply - demand imbalance persists, and the futures market may face pressure in the short term [6]. - Methanol: The inland market's maintenance has peaked, and production is expected to increase in late July. The port market faces dual pressures, with expected arrivals of 125 million tons in July and planned maintenance of coastal MTO, which will reduce ethylene demand. It is expected that the port will experience a slight inventory build - up in July, but the absolute inventory is low, with limited upside and downside, suggesting interval operations [9]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: In July, the supply - demand outlook for pure benzene is improving, but high import expectations and high port inventories limit its upward momentum. Downstream price transmission is poor, restricting its rebound. It may fluctuate weakly in the short term. For styrene, high industry profits have led to high - level operations, but some downstream losses and high finished - product inventories have led to production cuts. Supply - demand is expected to weaken, and short - term basis may face pressure [11]. - PVC and Caustic Soda: The caustic soda spot market is generally stable, with some downstream demand support. There is an upward price expectation in the peak season. The PVC market has shown signs of a pull - back after a rise. The supply - demand pattern is in a off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with weak procurement enthusiasm. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. - Crude Oil: Overnight oil prices fluctuated within a range. The macro - risk has eased, and the short - term supply concern has dissipated. Although China's refinery operating rate has reached a 10 - month high, it is overshadowed by macro - negatives. Short - term band strategies are recommended, and options can capture opportunities from increased volatility [24]. - Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP): Both PP and PE show a supply contraction, with compressed weighted profits and marginal profit repair. Static supply and demand are both decreasing, with inventory accumulation and weak apparent demand. In July, the supply pressure is not significant, and inventory reduction has improved. Unilateral strategies suggest interval operations, and LP250 can be taken as a profit - taking point for arbitrage [43]. - Polyester Industry Chain: For PX, the supply - demand is expected to remain tight, but the upward rebound is under pressure. For PTA, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the absolute price rebound is limited. For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand is turning to be loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate. For short - fiber, the supply - demand is weak, and the processing fee repair space is limited. For bottle - chips, the supply - demand has an improvement expectation, but the absolute price follows the cost [47]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea - Futures Prices: On July 15, the 01, 05, 09 contracts and the methanol main contract all declined compared to July 14, with the 09 contract having the largest decline of 1.87% [1]. - Futures Contract Spreads: The spreads between different contracts changed significantly. For example, the spread of 01 - 05 contract decreased by 128.57% [2]. - Main Positions: The number of long positions of the top 20 decreased by 3.47%, while the number of short positions increased by 4.39% [3]. - Upstream Raw Materials: The prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite and steam coal remained unchanged [4]. - Spot Market Prices: Spot prices in most regions declined, with the largest decline of 3.72% in Northeast China [5]. - Supply - Demand: Daily production remained stable, while weekly production increased by 1.12%. Factory and port inventories changed, with factory inventory decreasing by 4.99% and port inventory increasing by 10.98% [5]. Methanol - Prices and Spreads: The MA2601 and MA2509 contract prices declined on July 15 compared to July 14. The inventory of methanol enterprises, ports, and society all increased [9]. - Operating Rates: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 4.11%, while some downstream operating rates changed, with the water - coal slurry operating rate increasing by 1.69% [9]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Prices and Spreads: The prices of related products such as Brent crude oil and CFR Japan naphtha declined on July 15 compared to July 14. The pure benzene and styrene port inventories increased [11]. - Operating Rates: The operating rates of some links in the pure benzene and styrene industry chains changed slightly, with the Asian pure benzene operating rate decreasing by 0.1% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Spot and Futures Prices: The prices of PVC and caustic soda products were mostly stable on July 15, with some minor declines in futures prices [15]. - Overseas Quotes and Export Profits: The FOB East China port price of caustic soda decreased by 3.8%, and the export profit decreased significantly. The export profit of PVC increased slightly [16][17]. - Supply and Demand: The caustic soda and PVC operating rates changed slightly, and the demand - side operating rates of downstream industries also changed [18][19][20]. Crude Oil - Prices and Spreads: On July 16, Brent crude oil declined by 0.72%, WTI increased by 0.54%, and SC decreased by 1.26%. The spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [24]. - Refining Spreads: The refining spreads of various refined products changed, with the European diesel refining spread increasing by 4.89% [24]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - Futures and Spot Prices: The futures prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all declined on July 15 compared to July 14. Spot prices also decreased slightly [43]. - Operating Rates and Inventories: The operating rates of PE and PP production and downstream industries changed slightly, and inventories increased [43]. Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream and Downstream Prices: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and CFR Japan naphtha declined on July 15 compared to July 14. Downstream polyester product prices and cash flows also changed [47]. - Supply - Demand and Operating Rates: The operating rates of various links in the polyester industry chain changed, with the PTA operating rate increasing by 2.6% and the polyester bottle - chip operating rate decreasing by 4.7% [47].