集运欧线：航司涨价致使近远月月差修复

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tuesday's sharp rise in the main European line futures was mainly influenced by spot quotes. The high opening of quotes in late August indicates that the peak season may last until late August or later, breaking the previous market expectation that July would be the peak for airline quotes. The market has adjusted the price difference between the 10 and 08 contracts, and the 12 - contract has also risen significantly due to the traditional peak - season factor [3]. - The current futures price trend is mainly affected by spot quotes. If other airlines follow the high - opening quotes, the main contract will continue to rise; if the quotes in August are conservative, the market may turn into a volatile trend. It is recommended that investors considering long positions prioritize the 12 - contract [11]. 3) Summary by Relevant Sections Market Overview - On Tuesday, the EC2510 main contract opened higher at 1454 points, showed a volatile upward trend. Although the intraday gain narrowed, it further rose in the late session, with a nearly 18% intraday increase and a closing price of 1655.6 points, up 15.38% [2]. Trading Logic - The significant rise in the main European line futures on Tuesday, with the 10 - contract rising by over 15%, was mainly due to spot quotes. The CMA's online quotes for large containers in late August increased by nearly $1000 compared to the first half of August, indicating a potential delay in the peak - season rhythm this year compared to last year. The price difference between the 10 and 08 contracts was adjusted, and the 12 - contract also rose significantly [3]. Fundamental Analysis - Quotes: As of July 16, Maersk's quotes were $1780 - 1982/TEU and $2960 - 3262/TEU, slightly up from before; CMA's quotes were $2035 - 3135/TEU and $3645 - 5345/TEU. The quotes of other airlines were relatively stable [5][7]. - Supply and Demand: As of July 15, the global container total capacity was 32.7 million TEU, an 8.2% increase year - on - year. In June, the eurozone's composite PMI was 50.2, manufacturing PMI was 49.4, and service PMI was 50.0; the US manufacturing PMI was 49, and the new order index was 46.4. The OECD leading index for the G7 group in June was 100.40 [7]. Outlook - The current futures price is mainly affected by spot quotes. Since the 10 - contract has become the main contract and the quotes are still in the July - August peak - season range, the futures will be affected by the upward sentiment of quotes. If other airlines follow the high - opening quotes, the main contract will continue to rise; if the quotes in August are conservative, the market may turn volatile. Due to the 12 - contract being a peak - season contract, investors considering long positions can prioritize it [11].